Nathaniel Lowe
CIN
· 95 appearances tracked
13
HRs
13.7%
HR Rate
32.1%
Avg HR/FB
89.6
Avg EV
0.237
ISO
#1
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.190
Avg EV89.6
Barrel%8.3%
HR/FB vs RHP23.6%
Avg HR Dist395
Match%13.9%
Season HR%
14.4%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-16
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
66.2%
9
Breaking
19.3%
5
Offspeed
14.5%
3
All
100%
8.3%
17
22.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Griffin Jax · RHP · CIN
SMALL SAMPLE · 6 PA · since 2022
.167
AVG
.167
SLG
0
HR
1-for-6 across 6 plate appearances since 2022. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon —
Weather +2
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
8.3
vs
—
HR/FB
23.6
vs
24.4 ▼ risk
K%
22.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
13 this season · avg 397 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 24
Framber Valdez · Great American Ball Park
—
104.6
396.0
Apr 26
Keider Montero · Great American Ball Park
—
98.6
372.0
Apr 30
Michael Lorenzen · Great American Ball Park
—
101.7
399.0
May 5
Jameson Taillon · Wrigley Field
—
108.1
404.0
May 23
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
—
106.8
398.0
May 29
vs ATL · Grant Holmes
—
100.6
390
Jul 19
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
—
106.9
420
HR by month
Apr
May
Jul
All Appearances
95 tracked · 13 HR · 49 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 27
vs CLE · Daniel Lynch IV
4
99.1
4 BIP
Sep 26
vs CLE · Michael Wacha
5
106.5
5 BIP
Sep 23
vs CLE · Sonny Gray
2
93.6
2 BIP
Sep 20
vs ATH · Jack Perkins
3
106.2
3 BIP
Sep 18
vs ATH · Mason Barnett
2
103.0
2 BIP
Sep 15
vs CWS · Chris Murphy
4
108.0
4 BIP
Sep 14
vs CWS · Sean Newcomb
1
103.5
1 BIP
Sep 13
vs CLE · Joe Ryan
5
107.6
5 BIP
Sep 11
vs CLE · Taj Bradley
1
101.5
1 BIP
Sep 9
vs CLE · Shane Baz
3
104.8
HR
3 BIP
Sep 8
vs CLE · Brandon Young
1
88.9
1 BIP
Sep 6
vs DET · Jackson Jobe
2
92.3
2 BIP
Sep 4
vs DET · Keider Montero
4
107.1
4 BIP
Sep 3
vs TOR · José Soriano
3
95.0
3 BIP
Sep 2
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
2
82.6
2 BIP
Sep 1
vs TOR · Spencer Miles
2
89.9
2 BIP
Aug 30
vs KC · Seth Lugo
5
100.7
HR
5 BIP
Aug 28
vs KC · Michael Wacha
1
65.8
1 BIP
Aug 26
vs CLE · Grayson Rodriguez
2
110.0
2 BIP
Aug 23
vs CLE · Tomoyuki Sugano
5
98.8
5 BIP
Aug 22
vs CLE · Gabriel Hughes
4
107.3
4 BIP
Aug 20
vs SF · Landen Roupp
3
92.6
3 BIP
Aug 19
vs SF · SF Bullpen Proxy
2
102.8
2 BIP
Aug 16
vs SD · Casey Mize
3
97.5
3 BIP
Aug 15
vs SD · Wandy Peralta
3
92.0
3 BIP
Aug 14
vs SD · Michael King
4
107.4
HR
4 BIP
Aug 13
vs CLE · Keider Montero
4
100.8
4 BIP
Aug 11
vs CLE · Drew Anderson
3
98.5
3 BIP
Aug 9
vs CLE · Davis Martin
2
87.3
2 BIP
Aug 6
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
2
111.7
HR
2 BIP
Aug 5
vs NYM · Christian Scott
5
103.0
5 BIP
Aug 2
vs PIT · Mitch Keller
3
105.2
3 BIP
Aug 1
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
4
109.1
4 BIP
Jul 31
vs PIT · Paul Skenes
3
101.7
3 BIP
Jul 30
vs PIT · Yohan Ramírez
4
110.6
4 BIP
Jul 28
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
5
103.7
5 BIP
Jul 27
vs CLE · Slade Cecconi
0
—
—
Jul 26
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
5
109.0
5 BIP
Jul 24
@ STL · Dustin May
4
99.3
4 BIP
Jul 22
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
3
100.9
3 BIP
Jul 21
@ SEA · Luis Castillo
4
100.3
HR
4 BIP
Jul 20
@ SEA · George Kirby
0
—
—
Jul 19
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
3
106.9
HR
3 BIP
Jul 17
@ COL · Gabriel Hughes
0
—
—
Jul 11
vs CHC · Javier Assad
4
105.6
HR
4 BIP
Jul 7
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
1
84.6
1 BIP
Jul 4
vs BAL · Brandon Young
2
84.5
2 BIP
Jul 2
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
106.1
2 BIP
Jun 30
@ MIL · Brandon Sproat
2
94.2
2 BIP
Jun 27
@ PIT · Jared Jones
0
—
—
Jun 26
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
2
100.5
2 BIP
Jun 23
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
1
112.6
1 BIP
Jun 22
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
1
82.2
1 BIP
Jun 21
@ NYY · Elmer Rodríguez
3
77.6
3 BIP
Jun 20
@ NYY · Will Warren
2
102.3
2 BIP
Jun 19
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
2
88.8
2 BIP
Jun 17
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
2
87.4
2 BIP
Jun 16
vs NYM · Kodai Senga
1
86.6
1 BIP
Jun 14
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
2
102.5
2 BIP
Jun 13
vs AZ · Michael Soroka
2
90.0
2 BIP
Jun 10
@ SD · Michael King
3
88.1
3 BIP
Jun 9
@ SD · Lucas Giolito
1
86.4
1 BIP
Jun 8
@ SD · Walker Buehler
1
102.9
1 BIP
Jun 7
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
3
111.6
3 BIP
Jun 5
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
3
103.9
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs KC · Stephen Kolek
2
86.7
2 BIP
Jun 1
vs KC · Luinder Avila
3
73.3
3 BIP
May 31
vs ATL · Spencer Strider
3
86.4
3 BIP
May 29
vs ATL · Grant Holmes
4
101.0
HR
4 BIP
May 27
@ NYM · Huascar Brazobán
2
89.8
2 BIP
May 25
@ NYM · Nolan McLean
2
96.2
2 BIP
May 24
vs STL · Brycen Mautz
0
—
—
May 23
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
6
106.8
HR
6 BIP
May 22
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
0
—
—
May 20
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
3
107.8
3 BIP
May 18
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
3
107.8
3 BIP
May 17
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
4
111.6
4 BIP
May 15
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
3
112.2
3 BIP
May 13
vs WSH · Jake Irvin
1
—
1 BIP
May 12
vs WSH · Miles Mikolas
0
—
—
May 10
vs HOU · Kai-Wei Teng
0
—
—
May 9
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
2
91.5
2 BIP
May 8
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
2
71.9
2 BIP
May 7
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
0
—
—
May 6
@ CHC · Colin Rea
3
91.4
3 BIP
May 5
@ CHC · Jameson Taillon
3
108.1
HR
3 BIP
May 4
@ CHC · Edward Cabrera
2
107.4
2 BIP
May 3
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
48.2
1 BIP
May 2
@ PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
2
99.3
2 BIP
May 1
@ PIT · Mitch Keller
1
100.4
1 BIP
Apr 30
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
3
108.0
HR
3 BIP
Apr 29
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
2
97.0
2 BIP
Apr 26
vs DET · Keider Montero
4
98.6
HR
4 BIP
Apr 24
vs DET · Framber Valdez
5
112.7
HR
5 BIP
Apr 12
vs LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.950
Wind
9 mph from SSE
Temp
67°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
2:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
3:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
4:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
5:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
+6
Slight green alignment
proxy spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to oppo (from SSE)
Open the Dueness Calendar → His month grid, rhythm tightness, and tonight’s crossing mark load on demand.
Score Breakdown
Base 44 → 44
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
season hr rate
Pitcher FIP
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Nathaniel Lowe
Will Nathaniel Lowe hit a home run today?
Nathaniel Lowe is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #12 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Griffin Jax at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Nathaniel Lowe hit home runs?
Across 95 scored games this season, Nathaniel Lowe has 13 home runs — one every 7.3 games, or about 14% of his scored games.
Has Nathaniel Lowe homered off Griffin Jax before?
Not yet — Nathaniel Lowe has faced Griffin Jax 6 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.