Nathan Lukes
LHB
TOR
· 104 appearances tracked
9
HRs
8.7%
HR Rate
7.7%
Avg HR/FB
86.5
Avg EV
0.098
ISO
#15
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.126
Avg EV86.9
Barrel%4.9%
HR/FB vs RHP16.4%
Avg HR Dist382
Match%13.5%
Season HR%
8.7%
14D Pace
37.5%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
61.5%
2
Breaking
22.3%
5
Offspeed
16.2%
3
All
100%
2.5%
10
14.5%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Logan Gilbert · RHP · TOR
SMALL SAMPLE · 9 PA · since 2026
.000
AVG
.000
SLG
0
HR
0-for-9 across 9 plate appearances since 2026. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Rogers Centre Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather Neutral
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
4.9
vs
—
HR/FB
16.4
vs
16.9 ▼ risk
K%
14.5
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
104 tracked · 9 HR · 1 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 28
vs SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
101.5
HR
4 BIP
Aug 27
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
94.5
3 BIP
Aug 26
vs KC · Randy Dobnak
2
98.6
HR
2 BIP
Aug 25
vs KC · Seth Lugo
4
100.3
4 BIP
Aug 21
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
99.3
3 BIP
Aug 20
@ TB · Ian Seymour
3
97.4
HR
3 BIP
Aug 19
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
93.5
2 BIP
Aug 18
@ TB · Nick Martinez
3
98.7
3 BIP
Aug 15
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
5
99.0
5 BIP
Aug 14
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
87.6
3 BIP
Aug 13
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
3
91.8
3 BIP
Aug 10
vs BOS · Sonny Gray
4
97.9
4 BIP
Aug 8
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
6
100.6
HR
6 BIP
Aug 7
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
99.0
4 BIP
Aug 6
@ CHC · David Peterson
4
94.8
4 BIP
Aug 5
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
2
99.0
2 BIP
Aug 4
@ HOU · Hayden Wesneski
4
98.2
4 BIP
Aug 3
@ HOU · Cristian Javier
4
93.3
4 BIP
Jul 31
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
2
94.3
2 BIP
Jul 29
@ WSH · Zack Littell
2
96.3
2 BIP
Jul 28
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
4
99.7
4 BIP
Jul 27
@ WSH · WSH Bullpen Proxy
3
96.0
3 BIP
Jul 26
@ BOS · Ranger Suarez
2
90.1
2 BIP
Jul 25
@ BOS · Sonny Gray
4
91.8
4 BIP
Jul 22
vs TB · Griffin Jax
3
88.8
3 BIP
Jul 21
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
4
97.3
4 BIP
Jul 20
vs TB · Nick Martinez
4
87.2
4 BIP
Jul 19
vs CWS · Sean Burke
4
101.8
4 BIP
Jul 18
vs CWS · Davis Martin
2
83.4
2 BIP
Jul 12
@ SD · Germán Márquez
3
97.9
HR
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
99.4
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ SD · JP Sears
1
72.3
1 BIP
Jul 8
@ SF · Logan Webb
4
106.1
4 BIP
Jul 7
@ SF · Trevor McDonald
3
89.2
3 BIP
Jul 6
@ SF · Landen Roupp
4
95.1
4 BIP
Jul 5
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
3
99.2
3 BIP
Jul 4
@ SEA · Logan Gilbert
4
92.8
4 BIP
Jul 3
@ SEA · Luis Castillo
4
104.6
4 BIP
Jul 1
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
101.5
4 BIP
Jun 30
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
3
99.3
3 BIP
Jun 29
vs NYM · Sean Manaea
3
91.7
3 BIP
Jun 28
vs TEX · Kumar Rocker
3
102.4
HR
3 BIP
Jun 27
vs TEX · Cal Quantrill
3
96.6
3 BIP
Jun 26
vs TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
3
91.0
3 BIP
Jun 25
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
1
77.9
1 BIP
Jun 24
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
3
98.8
HR
3 BIP
Jun 22
vs HOU · Hunter Brown
3
92.2
3 BIP
Jun 21
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
0
—
—
Jun 20
@ CHC · Colin Rea
3
98.3
3 BIP
Jun 19
@ CHC · Ben Brown
3
94.5
3 BIP
Jun 18
@ BOS · Sonny Gray
4
100.4
HR
4 BIP
Jun 16
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
4
91.1
4 BIP
Jun 14
vs NYY · Will Warren
5
93.9
5 BIP
Jun 13
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
1
73.7
1 BIP
Jun 12
vs NYY · Ryan Weathers
2
98.8
2 BIP
Jun 10
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
1
91.1
1 BIP
Jun 9
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
93.5
4 BIP
Jun 8
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
98.7
3 BIP
Jun 6
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
90.8
3 BIP
Jun 5
vs BAL · Brandon Young
3
98.1
3 BIP
Jun 4
@ ATL · Chris Sale
3
102.5
3 BIP
Jun 3
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
5
96.9
HR
5 BIP
Jun 2
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
4
101.8
4 BIP
May 31
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
98.1
4 BIP
May 30
@ BAL · Brandon Young
2
102.5
2 BIP
May 28
@ BAL · Chris Bassitt
4
89.3
4 BIP
May 27
vs MIA · Eury Pérez
2
100.8
2 BIP
May 25
vs MIA · Janson Junk
3
102.7
3 BIP
May 13
vs TB · Griffin Jax
0
—
—
May 12
vs TB · Shane McClanahan
0
—
—
May 11
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
0
—
—
May 10
vs LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
May 9
vs LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
0
—
—
May 8
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
0
—
—
May 5
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
0
—
—
May 4
@ TB · Nick Martinez
0
—
—
May 3
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
0
—
—
May 2
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
0
—
—
May 1
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
0
—
—
Apr 30
@ MIN · Bailey Ober
0
—
—
Apr 29
vs BOS · Brayan Bello
0
—
—
Apr 28
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
0
—
—
Apr 27
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
0
—
—
Apr 25
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
0
—
—
Apr 24
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
1
99.1
1 BIP
Apr 22
@ LAA · José Soriano
4
107.2
4 BIP
Apr 21
@ LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
2
91.3
2 BIP
Apr 20
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
2
95.1
2 BIP
Apr 19
@ AZ · Ryne Nelson
5
107.5
5 BIP
Apr 18
@ AZ · Zac Gallen
5
105.8
5 BIP
Apr 17
@ AZ · Michael Soroka
1
97.2
1 BIP
Apr 14
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
1
100.5
1 BIP
Apr 12
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
3
85.0
3 BIP
Apr 11
vs MIN · Joe Ryan
3
93.9
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs LAD · Shohei Ohtani
2
102.8
2 BIP
Apr 7
vs LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1
97.6
1 BIP
Apr 6
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
0
—
—
Apr 5
@ CWS · Davis Martin
3
101.5
3 BIP
Apr 4
@ CWS · Grant Taylor
2
80.6
2 BIP
Apr 2
@ CWS · Sean Burke
0
—
—
Apr 1
vs COL · Kyle Freeland
2
86.5
2 BIP
Mar 31
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
2
96.9
2 BIP
Mar 30
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
1
70.6
1 BIP
Mar 27
vs ATH · Luis Severino
3
107.3
3 BIP
Ballpark
Rogers Centre · open-air
Park Factor
0.951
Wind
6 mph from SSW
Temp
69°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
1:37p
6 ↗
69°
+3
2:37p
6 ↗
68°
+2
3:37p
8 ↗
68°
+3
4:37p
9 ↗
67°
+2
5:37p
9 ↗
67°
+2
+2
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from SW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.00×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
7 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
0 gm
since his last HR, Aug 28
Season
9 HR
104 games · 3 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 8 gaps · median 7 gm · MAD ± 4.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 36 → 36
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
recent hr density 14d
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Pitcher FIP
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Nathan Lukes
Will Nathan Lukes hit a home run today?
Nathan Lukes is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #144 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Logan Gilbert at Rogers Centre. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Nathan Lukes hit home runs?
Across 104 scored games this season, Nathan Lukes has 9 home runs — one every 11.6 games, or about 9% of his scored games.
Has Nathan Lukes homered off Logan Gilbert before?
Not yet — Nathan Lukes has faced Logan Gilbert 9 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.