Nathan Church
LHB
STL
· 94 appearances tracked
8
HRs
8.5%
HR Rate
22.1%
Avg HR/FB
86.0
Avg EV
0.146
ISO
#18
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet.
The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-31
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
56.5%
3
Breaking
25.1%
4
Offspeed
18.4%
3
All
100%
6.3%
10
18.2%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
Batter vs. Pitcher
head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
0 of 4 active
Ballpark —
Pitcher form —
Platoon —
Weather —
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
K%
18.2
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
94 tracked · 8 HR · 6 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 30
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
3
99.9
3 BIP
Aug 29
vs PIT · Lake Bachar
4
101.6
4 BIP
Aug 28
vs PIT · Jared Jones
4
95.1
4 BIP
Aug 27
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
3
79.2
3 BIP
Aug 26
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
96.9
3 BIP
Aug 25
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
3
102.8
HR
3 BIP
Aug 22
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
4
97.1
4 BIP
Aug 20
@ CIN · Brady Singer
2
91.5
2 BIP
Aug 19
@ CIN · Chase Burns
2
94.6
2 BIP
Aug 17
@ CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
95.5
3 BIP
Aug 16
@ CHC · Edward Cabrera
4
98.3
4 BIP
Aug 14
@ CHC · Clay Holmes
4
88.8
4 BIP
Aug 12
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
93.6
4 BIP
Aug 10
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
4
89.0
4 BIP
Aug 9
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
3
97.7
3 BIP
Aug 8
vs COL · Kyle Freeland
5
104.7
5 BIP
Aug 7
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
1
97.7
1 BIP
Aug 5
@ NYY · Will Warren
4
103.9
4 BIP
Aug 4
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
105.4
3 BIP
Aug 3
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
99.0
HR
3 BIP
Aug 2
@ TOR · Max Scherzer
3
100.1
3 BIP
Aug 1
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
3
102.2
3 BIP
Jul 31
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
3
86.9
3 BIP
Jul 30
vs CHC · Javier Assad
0
—
—
Jul 29
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
3
99.4
3 BIP
Jul 28
vs CHC · Colin Rea
4
101.7
4 BIP
Jul 25
vs CIN · Hunter Greene
3
100.6
3 BIP
Jul 24
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
1
96.6
1 BIP
Jul 23
vs AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
3
105.3
3 BIP
Jul 21
@ LAA · Walbert Ureña
2
99.6
2 BIP
Jul 20
@ LAA · José Soriano
3
105.5
3 BIP
Jul 18
@ AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
3
98.8
3 BIP
Jul 17
@ AZ · Merrill Kelly
4
103.1
4 BIP
Jul 12
vs ATL · ATL Bullpen Proxy
2
89.4
2 BIP
Jul 11
vs ATL · Reynaldo López
2
89.1
2 BIP
Jul 9
vs MIL · Logan Henderson
3
92.4
3 BIP
Jul 7
vs MIL · Robert Gasser
4
89.3
4 BIP
Jul 6
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
4
100.2
4 BIP
Jul 5
@ CHC · Javier Assad
3
104.9
3 BIP
Jul 4
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
1
65.5
1 BIP
Jul 3
@ CHC · David Peterson
4
103.1
HR
4 BIP
Jul 2
@ ATL · ATL Bullpen Proxy
5
98.4
HR
5 BIP
Jul 1
@ ATL · Reynaldo López
2
83.3
2 BIP
Jun 30
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
3
106.5
HR
3 BIP
Jun 28
vs MIA · Tyler Phillips
3
105.6
3 BIP
Jun 27
vs MIA · Ryan Gusto
2
102.6
2 BIP
Jun 26
vs MIA · Max Meyer
3
88.6
3 BIP
Jun 25
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
0
—
—
Jun 22
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
3
100.1
3 BIP
Jun 21
@ KC · Stephen Kolek
4
109.7
4 BIP
Jun 19
@ KC · Seth Lugo
1
92.7
1 BIP
Jun 17
vs SD · Bradgley Rodriguez
2
100.6
2 BIP
Jun 16
vs SD · Michael King
3
101.6
3 BIP
Jun 15
vs SD · Wandy Peralta
1
82.6
1 BIP
Jun 14
@ MIN · Taj Bradley
2
90.3
2 BIP
Jun 13
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
2
93.4
2 BIP
Jun 12
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
1
81.1
1 BIP
Jun 11
@ NYM · Christian Scott
1
93.9
1 BIP
Jun 10
@ NYM · Austin Warren
3
97.2
3 BIP
Jun 9
@ NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
99.5
4 BIP
May 24
@ CIN · Brady Singer
0
—
—
May 22
@ CIN · Chris Paddack
0
—
—
May 20
vs PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
2
107.2
2 BIP
May 19
vs PIT · Mitch Keller
3
81.7
3 BIP
May 17
vs KC · Stephen Kolek
3
97.6
3 BIP
May 16
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
104.9
3 BIP
May 15
vs KC · Michael Wacha
3
89.3
3 BIP
May 14
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
4
92.2
4 BIP
May 13
@ ATH · J.T. Ginn
4
100.0
4 BIP
May 12
@ ATH · Jeffrey Springs
2
91.2
2 BIP
May 10
@ SD · Walker Buehler
2
101.7
2 BIP
May 9
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
3
106.7
3 BIP
May 8
@ SD · Griffin Canning
4
87.5
4 BIP
May 7
@ SD · Michael King
3
89.7
3 BIP
May 6
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
0
—
—
May 5
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
0
—
—
May 4
vs MIL · Chad Patrick
4
99.4
4 BIP
May 3
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
4
89.1
4 BIP
May 2
vs LAD · Roki Sasaki
4
101.9
4 BIP
May 1
vs LAD · Emmet Sheehan
2
93.9
2 BIP
Apr 30
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
4
101.8
4 BIP
Apr 29
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
2
101.7
2 BIP
Apr 27
@ PIT · Mason Montgomery
2
92.6
2 BIP
Apr 26
vs SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
110.1
HR
4 BIP
Apr 25
vs SEA · Bryan Woo
5
109.8
HR
5 BIP
Apr 24
vs SEA · George Kirby
4
99.6
4 BIP
Apr 22
@ MIA · Janson Junk
1
105.0
1 BIP
Apr 21
@ MIA · Chris Paddack
4
102.1
HR
4 BIP
Apr 20
@ MIA · Max Meyer
0
—
—
Apr 19
@ HOU · Mike Burrows
1
89.7
1 BIP
Apr 18
@ HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
2
76.8
2 BIP
Apr 17
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
2
92.7
2 BIP
Apr 15
vs CLE · Slade Cecconi
4
106.0
4 BIP
Mar 28
vs TB · Joe Boyle
3
66.6
3 BIP
Ballpark
park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Tue 9/1
Dueness now
1.67×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
3 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
5 gm
since his last HR, Aug 25
Season
8 HR
94 games · 1 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 7 gaps · median 3 gm · MAD ± 2 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Common questions about Nathan Church
Will Nathan Church hit a home run today?
Nathan Church is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 8 times in 94 scored games (about 9% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.
How often does Nathan Church hit home runs?
Across 94 scored games this season, Nathan Church has 8 home runs — one every 11.8 games, or about 9% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.