Matt Shaw
RHB
CHC
· 43 appearances tracked
4
HRs
9.3%
HR Rate
17.6%
Avg HR/FB
87.2
Avg EV
0.184
ISO
#17
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.173
Avg EV86.7
Barrel%5.4%
HR/FB vs LHP18.2%
Avg HR Dist366
Match%17.1%
Season HR%
11.4%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-09-01
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
53.6%
3
Breaking
36.7%
1
Offspeed
9.7%
0
All
100%
4.7%
4
18.0%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Robert Gasser · LHP · CHC
SMALL SAMPLE · 1 PA · since 2025
.000
AVG
.000
SLG
0
HR
0-for-1 across 1 plate appearance since 2025. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
3 of 4 active
Wrigley +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather +5
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
5.4
vs
—
HR/FB
18.2
vs
21.1 ▼ risk
K%
18.0
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
4 this season · avg 366 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 6
Shane McClanahan · Tropicana Field
—
106.0
366.0
HR by month
Apr
All Appearances
43 tracked · 4 HR · 7 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
1
83.5
1 BIP
Jun 26
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
1
96.7
1 BIP
Jun 22
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
0
—
—
Jun 20
vs TOR · Patrick Corbin
2
101.2
HR
2 BIP
Jun 19
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
4
105.7
4 BIP
Jun 17
vs COL · COL Bullpen Proxy
3
102.4
3 BIP
May 14
@ ATL · Chris Sale
3
96.8
3 BIP
May 13
@ ATL · JR Ritchie
0
—
—
May 12
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
1
83.3
1 BIP
May 10
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
96.9
3 BIP
May 9
@ TEX · Jack Leiter
1
99.9
1 BIP
May 8
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
0
—
—
May 7
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
0
—
—
May 6
vs CIN · Brady Singer
0
—
—
May 5
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
2
99.2
2 BIP
May 4
vs CIN · Chase Petty
0
—
—
May 3
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
0
—
—
May 2
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
2
95.7
2 BIP
May 1
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
2
99.9
2 BIP
Apr 29
@ SD · Matt Waldron
4
101.2
HR
4 BIP
Apr 28
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
99.5
3 BIP
Apr 27
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
2
68.5
2 BIP
Apr 26
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
2
91.2
2 BIP
Apr 25
@ LAD · Roki Sasaki
1
85.6
1 BIP
Apr 23
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
2
93.7
2 BIP
Apr 22
vs PHI · Kyle Backhus
0
—
—
Apr 21
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
1
99.2
1 BIP
Apr 20
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
2
87.7
2 BIP
Apr 18
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
0
—
—
Apr 15
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
4
107.9
4 BIP
Apr 14
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
1
85.2
1 BIP
Apr 13
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
2
78.4
2 BIP
Apr 11
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
79.1
1 BIP
Apr 8
@ TB · Joe Boyle
3
75.3
3 BIP
Apr 7
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
3
105.4
3 BIP
Apr 6
@ TB · Shane McClanahan
3
106.0
HR
3 BIP
Apr 5
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
5
95.9
HR
5 BIP
Apr 4
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
0
—
—
Apr 1
vs LAA · Yusei Kikuchi
4
103.6
4 BIP
Mar 31
vs LAA · José Soriano
3
98.4
3 BIP
Mar 30
vs LAA · Ryan Johnson
2
101.3
2 BIP
Mar 28
vs WSH · Miles Mikolas
3
88.7
3 BIP
Mar 26
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
3
95.0
3 BIP
Ballpark
Wrigley Field · open-air
Park Factor
1.141
Wind
8 mph from WSW
Temp
92°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
8 ↑
92°
+14
7:40p
8 ↑
90°
+14
8:40p
8 ↑
88°
+14
9:40p
8 ↑
85°
+14
10:40p
8 ↑
83°
+13
+14
Slight green alignment
blend spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to center (from SW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Tue 9/1
Dueness now
0.19×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
16 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
3 gm
since his last HR, Jun 20
Season
4 HR
43 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 3 gaps · median 16 gm · MAD ± 0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 48 → 48
ISO (Power)
Park Factor
Barrel Matchup
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
recent hr density 14d
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Matt Shaw
Will Matt Shaw hit a home run today?
Matt Shaw is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #79 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Robert Gasser at Wrigley Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Matt Shaw hit home runs?
Across 43 scored games this season, Matt Shaw has 4 home runs — one every 10.8 games, or about 9% of his scored games.
Has Matt Shaw homered off Robert Gasser before?
Not yet — Matt Shaw has faced Robert Gasser 1 time without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.