Lucas Spence

as of 2026-09-27

HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds

ISO

0.204

Avg EV

91.4

Barrel%

12.0%

HR/FB vs RHP

100

60.0%

Avg HR Dist

389

Match%

29.0%

Season HR%

—

0.0%

14D Pace

—

0.0%

100

ISOEVBRLHR/FBDISTMATCH

BBE 7 · season HR% & 14D pace unranked

Pitch Analysis season · as of 2026-09-27

Pitch Seen Barrel% HR K%

Fastball 56.6%

10.5%

33.3%

Breaking 24.5%

25.0%

38.5%

Offspeed 18.9%

20.0%

40.0%

All 100% 14.3% 3 35.8%

Barrel vs. Whiff BRL K

Fastball Breaking Offspeed

Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family. K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.

Batter vs. Pitcher vs Seth Johnson · RHP

SMALL SAMPLE · 1 PA · since 2026

.000

AVG

.000

SLG

0-for-1 across 1 plate appearance since 2026. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.

Modifiers 2 of 4 active

Sutter Health +HR Pitcher form Cold Platoon — Weather Neutral

Edge by rate · batter ● vs pitcher-allowed ●

Barrel% 12.0 vs —

12.0

HR/FB 60.0 vs 14.3 ▲ edge

60.0

14.3

K% 35.8 vs —

35.8

Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.

HR Days recent home runs

No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.

All Appearances every scored slate

No tracked appearances yet — this batter hasn't landed on a scored slate.

Ballpark Sutter Health Park · open-air

Park Factor 1.254 Wind 5 mph from SSE Temp 65°F Roof Open

TimeWindTempFIT

3:05p 5 ↖ 65° +10

4:05p 5 ↖ 65° +10

5:05p 5 ↖ 65° +10

6:05p 5 ↖ 65° +10

7:05p 5 ↖ 65° +10

+10

Slight green alignment

blend spray · game-window FIT · open-air wind signal

HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26

Game-window avg wind · blowing out to oppo (from SSE)

TONIGHT board — not posted yet next game —

Dueness now

—

fewer than 3 HRs — not enough to read a rhythm

Cadence

—

median between HRs, game-days

Current gap

—

no HRs yet

Season

0 HR

0 games · 0 HR last 14d

Rhythm tightness

his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky

0 gaps on record — not enough to read a rhythm (needs 3+ HRs).

dueness — · honest empty state, never a fake number

SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.

Score Breakdown Base 53 → 53

ISO (Power)

+16.8

Barrel Matchup

+14.5

Park Factor

+11.6

HR/FB Matchup

+4.6

Pitcher FIP

+4.0

Exit Velocity

+1.1

season hr rate

+0.0

recent hr density 14d

+0.0

⚾

Six home runs to freedom

Lucas Spence's full profile is waiting

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No results history for Lucas Spence

This batter hasn't appeared in the scored pool yet.

Common questions about Lucas Spence

Will Lucas Spence hit a home run today?

Lucas Spence is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #47 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Seth Johnson at Sutter Health Park. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.

Has Lucas Spence homered off Seth Johnson before?

Not yet — Lucas Spence has faced Seth Johnson 1 time without a home run.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

Lucas Spence

Lucas Spence's full profile is waiting

Common questions about Lucas Spence

Will Lucas Spence hit a home run today?

Has Lucas Spence homered off Seth Johnson before?

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.