Josh Naylor
LHB
SEA
· 112 appearances tracked
7
HRs
6.2%
HR Rate
13.1%
Avg HR/FB
87.6
Avg EV
0.108
ISO
#38
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.098
Avg EV87.3
Barrel%6.3%
HR/FB vs RHP11.3%
Avg HR Dist392
Match%7.8%
Season HR%
6.2%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
57.1%
7
Breaking
25.1%
3
Offspeed
17.8%
0
All
100%
4.5%
10
12.7%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Max Scherzer · RHP · SEA
SMALL SAMPLE · 4 PA · since 2023
.500
AVG
1.250
SLG
1
HR
2-for-4 with 1 homer across 4 plate appearances since 2023. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Rogers Centre Neutral
Pitcher form Cold
Platoon Edge
Weather Neutral
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
6.3
vs
—
HR/FB
11.3
vs
20.6 ▼ risk
K%
12.7
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
112 tracked · 7 HR · 1 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
@ TOR · José Soriano
4
94.2
4 BIP
Aug 28
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
3
93.1
3 BIP
Aug 25
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
3
93.2
3 BIP
Aug 24
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
4
101.9
4 BIP
Aug 23
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
4
91.9
4 BIP
Aug 22
vs CHC · David Peterson
2
83.7
2 BIP
Aug 21
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
4
101.7
4 BIP
Aug 20
@ MIL · Robert Gasser
4
100.5
4 BIP
Aug 19
@ MIL · Dustin May
5
102.0
5 BIP
Aug 18
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
102.3
3 BIP
Aug 16
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
5
104.7
5 BIP
Aug 15
@ HOU · Hayden Wesneski
2
96.8
2 BIP
Aug 14
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
5
106.2
5 BIP
Aug 13
@ NYY · Max Fried
3
105.2
3 BIP
Aug 12
@ NYY · Will Warren
2
97.3
2 BIP
Aug 9
vs TB · Ian Seymour
3
96.2
3 BIP
Aug 8
vs TB · Griffin Jax
4
106.8
HR
4 BIP
Aug 7
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
107.0
2 BIP
Aug 5
vs DET · Drew Anderson
2
93.7
2 BIP
Aug 4
vs DET · Troy Melton
2
92.3
2 BIP
Aug 2
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
4
98.8
4 BIP
Aug 1
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
3
93.5
3 BIP
Jul 31
vs MIN · Zebby Matthews
3
106.7
3 BIP
Jul 30
@ LAD · Roki Sasaki
3
101.5
3 BIP
Jul 29
@ LAD · Eric Lauer
4
95.6
4 BIP
Jul 28
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
96.9
3 BIP
Jul 27
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
3
91.9
3 BIP
Jul 26
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
4
103.8
4 BIP
Jul 25
@ TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
2
92.4
2 BIP
Jul 24
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
98.2
3 BIP
Jul 22
vs CIN · Brady Singer
3
90.9
3 BIP
Jul 21
vs CIN · Chase Burns
4
96.7
4 BIP
Jul 20
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
5
92.4
5 BIP
Jul 19
vs SF · Robbie Ray
4
96.7
4 BIP
Jul 18
vs SF · Logan Webb
3
103.9
3 BIP
Jul 17
vs SF · Landen Roupp
3
98.2
3 BIP
Jul 12
@ TB · Ian Seymour
3
103.2
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ TB · Griffin Jax
2
107.4
2 BIP
Jul 10
@ TB · Nick Martinez
3
105.5
3 BIP
Jul 9
@ MIA · Janson Junk
4
93.1
4 BIP
Jul 8
@ MIA · Tyler Phillips
2
98.3
2 BIP
Jul 7
@ MIA · Max Meyer
5
108.5
5 BIP
Jul 5
vs TOR · Trey Yesavage
4
93.0
4 BIP
Jul 4
vs TOR · Shane Bieber
4
95.5
4 BIP
Jul 3
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
4
98.9
4 BIP
Jul 2
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
3
86.4
3 BIP
Jun 30
vs LAA · José Soriano
3
100.1
3 BIP
Jun 29
vs LAA · Ryan Johnson
3
101.9
3 BIP
Jun 28
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
4
104.3
4 BIP
Jun 27
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
4
102.9
4 BIP
Jun 26
@ CLE · Joey Cantillo
3
105.9
3 BIP
Jun 25
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
88.9
3 BIP
Jun 24
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
3
97.8
3 BIP
Jun 23
@ PIT · Mitch Keller
4
105.2
4 BIP
Jun 21
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
2
100.6
2 BIP
Jun 20
vs BOS · Connelly Early
3
99.7
3 BIP
Jun 19
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
3
107.0
3 BIP
Jun 18
vs BAL · Shane Baz
4
99.3
4 BIP
Jun 17
vs BAL · Kyle Bradish
0
—
—
Jun 16
vs BAL · Brandon Young
0
—
—
Jun 14
@ WSH · PJ Poulin
3
100.7
3 BIP
Jun 13
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
3
91.0
3 BIP
Jun 12
@ WSH · Zack Littell
5
106.6
HR
5 BIP
Jun 11
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
104.4
4 BIP
Jun 10
@ BAL · Brandon Young
4
104.6
4 BIP
Jun 9
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
3
90.9
3 BIP
Jun 8
@ BAL · Trey Gibson
4
92.3
HR
4 BIP
Jun 7
@ DET · Jack Flaherty
4
98.0
4 BIP
Jun 6
@ DET · Keider Montero
3
107.6
3 BIP
Jun 5
@ DET · Framber Valdez
3
104.8
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
100.4
4 BIP
Jun 1
vs NYM · Austin Warren
3
99.3
HR
3 BIP
May 31
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
3
90.2
3 BIP
May 30
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
4
93.0
4 BIP
May 29
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
4
103.3
4 BIP
May 27
@ ATH · Jeffrey Springs
5
91.1
5 BIP
May 25
@ ATH · Aaron Civale
5
106.4
5 BIP
May 24
@ KC · Seth Lugo
4
106.4
4 BIP
May 23
@ KC · Stephen Kolek
3
96.8
3 BIP
May 22
@ KC · Noah Cameron
0
—
—
May 20
vs CWS · Sean Burke
3
88.9
3 BIP
May 19
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
2
74.2
2 BIP
May 18
vs CWS · Noah Schultz
4
99.2
4 BIP
May 17
vs SD · Lucas Giolito
3
97.1
3 BIP
May 16
vs SD · Walker Buehler
4
108.7
4 BIP
May 15
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
4
106.8
4 BIP
May 14
@ HOU · Mike Burrows
2
101.5
2 BIP
May 13
@ HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
3
98.8
3 BIP
May 12
@ HOU · Tatsuya Imai
5
102.0
5 BIP
May 11
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
3
99.6
3 BIP
May 10
@ CWS · Davis Martin
3
99.4
3 BIP
May 9
@ CWS · Anthony Kay
4
103.5
4 BIP
May 8
@ CWS · Sean Burke
5
106.3
HR
5 BIP
May 6
vs ATL · Martín Pérez
3
102.4
3 BIP
May 5
vs ATL · Bryce Elder
2
103.8
2 BIP
May 4
vs ATL · JR Ritchie
5
108.1
5 BIP
May 3
vs KC · Kris Bubic
3
98.1
3 BIP
May 2
vs KC · Seth Lugo
3
99.7
3 BIP
May 1
vs KC · Cole Ragans
3
86.6
3 BIP
Apr 29
@ MIN · Taj Bradley
3
85.0
3 BIP
Apr 28
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
5
104.9
HR
5 BIP
Apr 27
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
3
98.6
3 BIP
Apr 25
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
4
104.9
4 BIP
Apr 24
@ STL · Andre Pallante
1
107.3
HR
1 BIP
Apr 22
vs ATH · Aaron Civale
4
102.6
4 BIP
Apr 21
vs ATH · Jacob Lopez
3
95.3
3 BIP
Apr 20
vs ATH · J.T. Ginn
4
98.7
4 BIP
Apr 19
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
0
—
—
Apr 18
vs TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
3
94.1
3 BIP
Apr 17
vs TEX · Jacob deGrom
2
82.0
2 BIP
Apr 16
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
98.2
3 BIP
Apr 15
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
2
100.5
2 BIP
Ballpark
Rogers Centre · open-air
Park Factor
0.954
Wind
2 mph from S
Temp
71°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
1:37p
2 ↗
71°
+1
2:37p
3 ↗
71°
+2
3:37p
4 ↗
70°
+2
4:37p
5 ↗
68°
+3
5:37p
5 ↗
68°
+2
+2
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from SSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
2.00×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
8 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
16 gm
since his last HR, Aug 8
Season
7 HR
112 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 6 gaps · median 8 gm · MAD ± 4.5 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 36 → 36
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Pitcher FIP
Park Factor
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Josh Naylor
Will Josh Naylor hit a home run today?
Josh Naylor is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #151 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Max Scherzer at Rogers Centre. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Josh Naylor hit home runs?
Across 112 scored games this season, Josh Naylor has 7 home runs — one every 16.0 games, or about 6% of his scored games.
Has Josh Naylor homered off Max Scherzer before?
Yes — Josh Naylor has taken Max Scherzer deep 1 time in 4 career plate appearances against him.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.