Carson Kelly
RHB
CHC
· 108 appearances tracked
9
HRs
8.3%
HR Rate
9.1%
Avg HR/FB
89.5
Avg EV
0.124
ISO
#13
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.114
Avg EV87.2
Barrel%6.6%
HR/FB vs RHP8.1%
Avg HR Dist410
Match%9.8%
Season HR%
8.3%
14D Pace
22.2%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
59.5%
4
Breaking
32.2%
3
Offspeed
8.3%
1
All
100%
5.5%
8
16.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Chase Burns · RHP · CHC
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No prior plate appearances vs Chase Burns in our data. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Wrigley +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Even
Weather +5
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
6.6
vs
—
HR/FB
8.1
vs
4.8 ▲ edge
K%
16.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
9 this season · avg 422 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 14
Aaron Nola · Citizens Bank Park
—
103.3
422.0
HR by month
Apr
All Appearances
108 tracked · 9 HR · 11 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
96.3
HR
3 BIP
Aug 28
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
96.3
3 BIP
Aug 26
@ AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
2
82.4
2 BIP
Aug 25
@ AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
0
—
—
Aug 24
@ AZ · Merrill Kelly
3
105.4
HR
3 BIP
Aug 23
@ SEA · Bryce Miller
5
103.8
5 BIP
Aug 21
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
98.5
4 BIP
Aug 19
vs CWS · Sean Newcomb
2
104.4
2 BIP
Aug 17
vs CWS · Luis Castillo
5
99.1
5 BIP
Aug 14
vs STL · Matthew Liberatore
1
76.2
1 BIP
Aug 12
@ WSH · WSH Bullpen Proxy
2
93.9
2 BIP
Aug 11
@ WSH · Jake Irvin
5
92.5
5 BIP
Aug 8
@ KC · Seth Lugo
1
94.3
1 BIP
Aug 7
@ KC · Daniel Lynch IV
4
82.6
4 BIP
Aug 5
vs LAD · Eric Lauer
5
102.7
5 BIP
Aug 4
vs LAD · Tarik Skubal
0
—
—
Aug 3
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
4
104.6
HR
4 BIP
Aug 1
vs NYY · Max Fried
2
76.8
2 BIP
Jul 30
@ STL · Andre Pallante
4
98.8
4 BIP
Jul 28
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
4
98.5
4 BIP
Jul 27
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
4
101.2
4 BIP
Jul 26
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
54.6
1 BIP
Jul 24
@ PIT · Jared Jones
3
102.6
3 BIP
Jul 22
vs DET · Keider Montero
3
95.5
3 BIP
Jul 21
vs DET · Framber Valdez
2
98.8
2 BIP
Jul 20
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
1
72.4
1 BIP
Jul 19
vs MIN · Zebby Matthews
3
100.4
3 BIP
Jul 17
vs MIN · Bailey Ober
3
97.0
3 BIP
Jul 12
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
99.8
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ CIN · Nick Lodolo
3
103.0
HR
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ CIN · Hunter Greene
3
94.2
3 BIP
Jul 9
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
2
67.3
2 BIP
Jul 8
@ BAL · Dean Kremer
2
106.6
HR
2 BIP
Jul 5
vs STL · Matthew Liberatore
1
95.1
1 BIP
Jul 4
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
0
—
—
Jul 3
vs STL · Andre Pallante
3
101.4
3 BIP
Jun 30
vs SD · JP Sears
4
97.6
4 BIP
Jun 27
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
90.3
3 BIP
Jun 26
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
105.4
2 BIP
Jun 25
@ NYM · Freddy Peralta
1
92.5
1 BIP
Jun 24
@ NYM · Sean Manaea
5
102.6
5 BIP
Jun 23
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
2
85.5
2 BIP
Jun 22
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
0
—
—
Jun 21
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
0
—
—
Jun 19
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
3
105.3
HR
3 BIP
Jun 17
vs COL · COL Bullpen Proxy
3
98.3
3 BIP
Jun 16
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
0
—
—
Jun 15
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
0
—
—
Jun 14
@ SF · Logan Webb
3
93.5
3 BIP
Jun 13
@ SF · Trevor McDonald
0
—
—
Jun 12
@ SF · Landen Roupp
2
94.9
2 BIP
Jun 11
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
3
105.5
HR
3 BIP
Jun 10
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
1
79.5
1 BIP
Jun 7
vs SF · Trevor McDonald
3
89.7
3 BIP
Jun 6
vs SF · Landen Roupp
4
97.1
4 BIP
Jun 5
vs SF · Robbie Ray
3
104.8
3 BIP
Jun 2
vs ATH · Gage Jump
3
98.9
3 BIP
May 31
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
3
96.7
3 BIP
May 30
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
0
—
—
May 29
@ STL · Andre Pallante
4
97.3
4 BIP
May 27
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
105.3
3 BIP
May 26
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
4
100.1
4 BIP
May 24
vs HOU · Peter Lambert
3
101.9
3 BIP
May 22
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
2
84.7
2 BIP
May 20
vs MIL · Kyle Harrison
1
62.5
1 BIP
May 18
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
2
89.7
2 BIP
May 17
@ CWS · Erick Fedde
3
103.7
3 BIP
May 16
@ CWS · Davis Martin
0
—
—
May 15
@ CWS · Sean Burke
4
102.0
4 BIP
May 13
@ ATL · JR Ritchie
3
92.5
3 BIP
May 12
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
0
—
—
May 10
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
2
90.2
2 BIP
May 9
@ TEX · Jack Leiter
2
89.9
2 BIP
May 8
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
3
104.1
3 BIP
May 7
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
0
—
—
May 6
vs CIN · Brady Singer
3
91.2
3 BIP
May 5
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
0
—
—
May 4
vs CIN · Chase Petty
2
91.5
2 BIP
May 3
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
4
100.8
4 BIP
May 2
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
0
—
—
May 1
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
4
105.3
4 BIP
Apr 29
@ SD · Matt Waldron
0
—
—
Apr 28
@ SD · Walker Buehler
4
100.8
4 BIP
Apr 27
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
0
—
—
Apr 26
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
4
98.2
4 BIP
Apr 25
@ LAD · Roki Sasaki
0
—
—
Apr 24
@ LAD · Emmet Sheehan
1
93.0
1 BIP
Apr 23
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
5
97.7
5 BIP
Apr 22
vs PHI · Kyle Backhus
0
—
—
Apr 21
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
94.4
3 BIP
Apr 20
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
0
—
—
Apr 19
vs NYM · Tobias Myers
1
97.6
1 BIP
Apr 18
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
1
105.2
HR
1 BIP
Apr 17
vs NYM · Kodai Senga
4
88.0
4 BIP
Apr 14
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
4
104.7
HR
4 BIP
Apr 13
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
2
103.7
2 BIP
Apr 11
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
84.5
1 BIP
Apr 10
vs PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
1
107.6
1 BIP
Apr 8
@ TB · Joe Boyle
4
108.4
4 BIP
Apr 7
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
0
—
—
Apr 6
@ TB · Shane McClanahan
3
100.3
3 BIP
Apr 5
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
2
93.4
2 BIP
Apr 4
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
0
—
—
Apr 1
vs LAA · Yusei Kikuchi
2
102.2
2 BIP
Mar 31
vs LAA · José Soriano
1
91.1
1 BIP
Mar 30
vs LAA · Ryan Johnson
3
101.6
3 BIP
Mar 29
vs WSH · Jake Irvin
3
99.6
3 BIP
Mar 26
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
3
101.9
3 BIP
Ballpark
Wrigley Field · open-air
Park Factor
1.114
Wind
10 mph from SSW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:20p
10 ↗
81°
+14
7:20p
10 ↗
80°
+14
8:20p
9 ↗
80°
+13
9:20p
9 ↗
79°
+12
10:20p
9 ↗
78°
+11
+13
Slight green alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to center (from SSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.00×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
12 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
0 gm
since his last HR, Aug 29
Season
9 HR
108 games · 2 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 8 gaps · median 12 gm · MAD ± 6.5 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 41 → 41
ISO (Power)
Park Factor
Barrel Matchup
recent hr density 14d
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Pitcher FIP
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Carson Kelly
Will Carson Kelly hit a home run today?
Carson Kelly is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #110 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Chase Burns at Wrigley Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Carson Kelly hit home runs?
Across 108 scored games this season, Carson Kelly has 9 home runs — one every 12.0 games, or about 8% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.