Alex Bregman
RHB
CHC
· 132 appearances tracked
16
HRs
12.1%
HR Rate
15.8%
Avg HR/FB
88.6
Avg EV
0.137
ISO
#25
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.160
Avg EV88.1
Barrel%6.4%
HR/FB vs RHP19.8%
Avg HR Dist389
Match%16.2%
Season HR%
12.0%
14D Pace
25.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-29
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
59.9%
9
Breaking
30.6%
9
Offspeed
9.4%
1
All
100%
5.2%
19
15.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Chase Burns · RHP · CHC
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No prior plate appearances vs Chase Burns in our data. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Wrigley +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Even
Weather +3
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
6.4
vs
—
HR/FB
19.8
vs
4.8 ▲ edge
K%
15.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
132 tracked · 16 HR · 6 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
5
102.3
HR
5 BIP
Aug 28
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
4
99.2
4 BIP
Aug 26
@ AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
3
93.5
3 BIP
Aug 25
@ AZ · Brandon Pfaadt
3
69.7
3 BIP
Aug 24
@ AZ · Merrill Kelly
5
102.0
5 BIP
Aug 23
@ SEA · Bryce Miller
3
80.5
3 BIP
Aug 22
@ SEA · SEA Bullpen Proxy
2
104.7
HR
2 BIP
Aug 21
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
4
102.6
HR
4 BIP
Aug 19
vs CWS · Sean Newcomb
3
101.5
3 BIP
Aug 18
vs CWS · Bryan Hudson
5
97.6
5 BIP
Aug 17
vs CWS · Luis Castillo
4
101.1
4 BIP
Aug 16
vs STL · Hunter Dobbins
3
92.4
3 BIP
Aug 15
vs STL · Michael McGreevy
3
97.9
3 BIP
Aug 14
vs STL · Matthew Liberatore
3
95.3
3 BIP
Aug 13
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
2
98.8
2 BIP
Aug 12
@ WSH · WSH Bullpen Proxy
3
98.4
HR
3 BIP
Aug 11
@ WSH · Jake Irvin
3
104.1
HR
3 BIP
Aug 9
@ KC · Randy Dobnak
5
101.0
5 BIP
Aug 8
@ KC · Seth Lugo
3
106.5
3 BIP
Aug 7
@ KC · Daniel Lynch IV
4
96.0
4 BIP
Aug 6
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
3
99.7
HR
3 BIP
Aug 5
vs LAD · Eric Lauer
5
99.8
5 BIP
Aug 4
vs LAD · Tarik Skubal
4
96.8
4 BIP
Aug 3
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
2
103.2
2 BIP
Aug 2
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
100.9
3 BIP
Aug 1
vs NYY · Max Fried
2
99.2
2 BIP
Jul 31
vs NYY · Will Warren
4
101.3
4 BIP
Jul 30
@ STL · Andre Pallante
4
102.9
4 BIP
Jul 29
@ STL · Dustin May
3
101.2
3 BIP
Jul 28
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
4
98.0
4 BIP
Jul 27
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
5
100.0
HR
5 BIP
Jul 25
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
3
95.0
3 BIP
Jul 24
@ PIT · Jared Jones
3
84.5
3 BIP
Jul 22
vs DET · Keider Montero
2
76.9
2 BIP
Jul 21
vs DET · Framber Valdez
4
95.9
4 BIP
Jul 20
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
3
93.7
3 BIP
Jul 19
vs MIN · Zebby Matthews
4
101.4
HR
4 BIP
Jul 18
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
2
98.4
2 BIP
Jul 17
vs MIN · Bailey Ober
1
90.2
1 BIP
Jul 12
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
5
102.3
HR
5 BIP
Jul 11
@ CIN · Nick Lodolo
4
93.4
HR
4 BIP
Jul 10
@ CIN · Hunter Greene
1
87.4
1 BIP
Jul 9
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
3
100.8
3 BIP
Jul 8
@ BAL · Dean Kremer
5
103.0
5 BIP
Jul 7
@ BAL · Shane Baz
5
96.8
5 BIP
Jul 5
vs STL · Matthew Liberatore
3
95.1
3 BIP
Jul 4
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
2
96.8
2 BIP
Jul 3
vs STL · Andre Pallante
4
97.8
4 BIP
Jul 1
vs SD · Walker Buehler
5
103.4
5 BIP
Jun 30
vs SD · JP Sears
3
100.9
HR
3 BIP
Jun 29
vs SD · Griffin Canning
4
102.2
4 BIP
Jun 28
@ MIL · Brandon Woodruff
3
93.7
3 BIP
Jun 27
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
100.9
3 BIP
Jun 26
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
100.0
2 BIP
Jun 25
@ NYM · Freddy Peralta
3
98.7
3 BIP
Jun 24
@ NYM · Sean Manaea
2
96.6
2 BIP
Jun 23
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
4
95.2
4 BIP
Jun 22
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
0
—
—
Jun 21
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
0
—
—
Jun 20
vs TOR · Patrick Corbin
4
84.6
4 BIP
Jun 19
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
4
97.8
4 BIP
Jun 17
vs COL · COL Bullpen Proxy
2
95.3
2 BIP
Jun 16
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
1
88.3
1 BIP
Jun 15
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
4
99.3
4 BIP
Jun 14
@ SF · Logan Webb
4
99.0
4 BIP
Jun 13
@ SF · Trevor McDonald
4
100.4
4 BIP
Jun 12
@ SF · Landen Roupp
3
96.0
3 BIP
Jun 11
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
3
103.5
HR
3 BIP
Jun 10
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
2
74.0
2 BIP
Jun 9
@ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
4
100.6
4 BIP
Jun 7
vs SF · Trevor McDonald
4
97.5
4 BIP
Jun 6
vs SF · Landen Roupp
1
86.9
1 BIP
Jun 5
vs SF · Robbie Ray
4
87.2
4 BIP
Jun 4
vs ATH · J.T. Ginn
3
94.2
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs ATH · Jeffrey Springs
4
93.5
4 BIP
Jun 2
vs ATH · Gage Jump
3
92.7
3 BIP
May 31
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
3
100.5
HR
3 BIP
May 30
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
3
98.4
3 BIP
May 29
@ STL · Andre Pallante
4
106.4
4 BIP
May 28
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
4
92.6
4 BIP
May 27
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
5
97.6
5 BIP
May 26
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
3
95.8
3 BIP
May 25
@ PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
3
105.6
3 BIP
May 24
vs HOU · Peter Lambert
3
96.1
3 BIP
May 23
vs HOU · Kai-Wei Teng
4
96.8
4 BIP
May 22
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
3
95.2
3 BIP
May 20
vs MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
92.4
3 BIP
May 19
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
91.2
2 BIP
May 18
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
3
99.8
3 BIP
May 17
@ CWS · Erick Fedde
5
96.4
5 BIP
May 16
@ CWS · Davis Martin
2
104.2
2 BIP
May 15
@ CWS · Sean Burke
5
103.7
5 BIP
May 14
@ ATL · Chris Sale
3
103.1
3 BIP
May 13
@ ATL · JR Ritchie
3
102.1
3 BIP
May 12
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
4
102.0
HR
4 BIP
May 10
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
0
—
—
May 9
@ TEX · Jack Leiter
2
97.6
2 BIP
May 8
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
2
76.3
2 BIP
May 7
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
88.6
3 BIP
May 6
vs CIN · Brady Singer
2
98.8
2 BIP
May 5
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
4
102.1
4 BIP
May 4
vs CIN · Chase Petty
3
106.0
3 BIP
May 3
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
3
75.4
3 BIP
May 2
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
2
97.5
2 BIP
May 1
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
4
99.3
4 BIP
Apr 29
@ SD · Matt Waldron
3
96.6
3 BIP
Apr 28
@ SD · Walker Buehler
2
101.3
2 BIP
Apr 27
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
3
104.0
3 BIP
Apr 26
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
103.3
3 BIP
Apr 25
@ LAD · Roki Sasaki
2
96.8
2 BIP
Apr 24
@ LAD · Emmet Sheehan
3
107.3
HR
3 BIP
Apr 23
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
4
96.8
4 BIP
Apr 22
vs PHI · Kyle Backhus
5
101.5
5 BIP
Apr 21
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
4
102.3
4 BIP
Apr 20
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
3
102.6
3 BIP
Apr 19
vs NYM · Tobias Myers
3
91.5
3 BIP
Apr 18
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
104.6
4 BIP
Apr 17
vs NYM · Kodai Senga
4
93.8
4 BIP
Apr 15
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
1
96.6
1 BIP
Apr 11
vs BOS · Kyle Leahy
5
100.2
5 BIP
Apr 10
vs PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
4
99.4
4 BIP
Apr 8
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
1
100.3
1 BIP
Apr 7
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
5
101.0
5 BIP
Apr 6
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
3
83.5
3 BIP
Apr 5
vs SD · Walker Buehler
7
100.4
7 BIP
Apr 4
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
0
—
—
Apr 1
vs BOS · Mike Burrows
3
103.3
3 BIP
Mar 31
vs BOS · Hunter Brown
4
104.9
4 BIP
Mar 30
vs BOS · Lance McCullers Jr.
4
105.6
4 BIP
Mar 29
vs WSH · Jake Irvin
4
103.8
HR
4 BIP
Mar 28
vs BOS · Brady Singer
4
108.3
4 BIP
Mar 26
vs BOS · Andrew Abbott
3
102.0
3 BIP
Ballpark
Wrigley Field · open-air
Park Factor
1.090
Wind
9 mph from SSW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:20p
9 ↗
81°
+12
7:20p
8 ↗
80°
+11
8:20p
7 ↗
78°
+9
9:20p
7 ↗
77°
+9
10:20p
6 ↗
76°
+8
+10
Slight green alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from S)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.00×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
8 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
0 gm
since his last HR, Aug 29
Season
16 HR
132 games · 3 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 15 gaps · median 8 gm · MAD ± 5 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 46 → 46
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
season hr rate
recent hr density 14d
HR/FB Matchup
Pitcher FIP
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Alex Bregman
Will Alex Bregman hit a home run today?
Alex Bregman is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #75 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Chase Burns at Wrigley Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Alex Bregman hit home runs?
Across 132 scored games this season, Alex Bregman has 16 home runs — one every 8.2 games, or about 12% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.