2026-09-05 · TB @ TEX
Anatomy of a Homer: Jonathan Aranda's 409-footer
Jonathan Aranda off Jacob Latz · Globe Life Field
100.7
Exit velo (mph)
30°
Launch angle
409
Distance (ft)
73.1
Bat speed (mph)
+425
Morning line
The situation
Top of the 10th, 1-2 count, two on, tied 3-3. It was the go-ahead swing. Win probability moved 45 points on one pitch.
The pitch
Jacob Latz threw a slider at 87.8 mph, in the strike zone, down, pitch 4 of the at-bat.
The swing
Bat speed 73.1 mph, attack angle 15°, contact at 100.7 mph off the bat, 30° launch.
The flight
409 feet, a barrel by classification.
The park
Globe Life Field, empirical park factor 1.04, 74 degrees, Roof Closed, 0 mph, None.
Where it was — slider, 87.8 mph (catcher's view)
What the board saw.
Our model ranked Jonathan Aranda #88 on the morning slate; he hit 2nd.
The morning line was +425.
See how the full board did on the track record.
Data: MLB Statcast, our empirical park factors, and the morning odds snapshot. Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.