2026-08-29 · AZ @ SF
Anatomy of a Homer: Lars Nootbaar's 432-footer
Lars Nootbaar off Ryan Walker · Oracle Park
110.2
Exit velo (mph)
30°
Launch angle
432
Distance (ft)
77.5
Bat speed (mph)
The situation
Top of the 7th, 2-2 count, the bases loaded, tied 0-0. It was the go-ahead swing. Win probability moved 30 points on one pitch.
The pitch
Ryan Walker threw a 4-seam fastball at 94.9 mph, in the strike zone, up, pitch 5 of the at-bat.
The swing
Bat speed 77.5 mph, attack angle 18°, contact at 110.2 mph off the bat, 30° launch.
The flight
432 feet, a barrel by classification.
The park
Oracle Park, 65 degrees, Sunny, 13 mph, Out To CF.
Where it was — 4-seam fastball, 94.9 mph (catcher's view)
What the board saw.
Lars Nootbaar wasn't ranked on our board that day — some days the game beats the model, and we say so.
See how the full board did on the track record.
Data: MLB Statcast, our empirical park factors, and the morning odds snapshot. Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.