← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-06-19
1
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
33
HRs in Slate
85%
Coverage
216
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 33 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
9 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
7 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
13 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
8 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Trey Gibson: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 1, 'score': 90.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 8, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Freddie Freeman', 'rank': 12, 'score': 74.0}
José Soriano: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 3, 'score': 79.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 15, 'score': 70.0}
Rhett Lowder: {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 6, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Jasson Domínguez', 'rank': 10, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Spencer Jones', 'rank': 13, 'score': 74.0}
Kyle Freeland: {'batter': 'Brandon Lowe', 'rank': 11, 'score': 74.0}, {'batter': 'Bryan Reynolds', 'rank': 14, 'score': 73.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Trey Gibson | 39.1% | 90 | 6.5 | 1.23 | 🔥 | 14.0% | |
| 2 | — | Hunter Goodman | Bubba Chandler | 33.2% | 84 | 4.6 | 1.15 | 🌤️ | 10.9% | |
| 3 | — | Nick Kurtz | José Soriano | 45.3% | 79 | 4.0 | 1.18 | · | 12.4% | |
| 4 | ✅ | Zach Neto | Jeffrey Springs | 32.2% | 78 | 5.4 | 1.18 | 🌤️ | 10.9% | 101.3 mph · 401ft · 24.0° |
| 5 | — | James Wood | Griffin Jax | 39.1% | 77 | 4.6 | 1.04 | 🌧️ | 15.1% | |
| 6 | ✅ | Ben Rice | Rhett Lowder | 34.5% | 76 | 4.0 | 1.15 | 🌧️ | 10.6% | 109.1 mph · 433ft · 26.0° |
| 7 | — | Byron Buxton | Michael Soroka | 27.4% | 76 | 3.3 | 0.94 | 🌤️ | 12.6% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Max Muncy | Trey Gibson | 32.9% | 75 | 6.5 | 1.23 | ❄ | 13.5% | 101.8 mph · 426ft · 30.0° |
| 9 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Roki Sasaki | 36.1% | 75 | 5.0 | 1.23 | · | 11.2% | 97.5 mph · 375ft · 34.0° |
| 10 | — | Jasson Domínguez | Rhett Lowder | 37.4% | 75 | 4.0 | 1.15 | 🌤️ | 4.3% | |
| 11 | — | Brandon Lowe | Kyle Freeland | 28.3% | 74 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 🌧️ | 10.7% | |
| 12 | — | Freddie Freeman | Trey Gibson | 29.6% | 74 | 6.5 | 1.23 | 🌤️ | 11.7% | |
| 13 | — | Spencer Jones | Rhett Lowder | 35.3% | 74 | 4.0 | 1.15 | 🌤️ | 5.2% | |
| 14 | — | Bryan Reynolds | Kyle Freeland | 30.0% | 73 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 🔥 | 9.9% | |
| 15 | — | Shea Langeliers | José Soriano | 24.6% | 70 | 4.0 | 1.18 | 🌧️ | 11.4% |
All 33 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Zach Neto | 32.2% | 101.3 | 401ft | 24.0° |
| 6 | Ben Rice | 34.5% | 109.1 | 433ft | 26.0° |
| 8 | Max Muncy | 32.9% | 101.8 | 426ft | 30.0° |
| 9 | Pete Alonso | 36.1% | 97.5 | 375ft | 34.0° |
| 18 | Gunnar Henderson | 19.4% | 106.6 | 375ft | 40.0° |
| 33 | Randal Grichuk | 25.4% | 102.2 | 420ft | 27.0° |
| 41 | CJ Abrams | 21.9% | 106.2 | 412ft | 25.0° |
| 52 | Mookie Betts | 14.5% | 100.7 | 378ft | 38.0° |
| 62 | Jonathan Aranda | 10.5% | 95.2 | 334ft | 24.0° |
| 70 | TJ Rumfield | 23.2% | 101.3 | 427ft | 35.0° |
| 84 | Jac Caglianone | 16.4% | 110.5 | 404ft | 24.0° |
| 86 | Logan O'Hoppe | 8.1% | 97.2 | 396ft | 32.0° |
| 93 | Royce Lewis | 14.9% | 105.2 | 427ft | 28.0° |
| 97 | Rhys Hoskins | 11.3% | 100.8 | 376ft | 30.0° |
| 107 | Rafael Devers | 18.3% | 107.7 | 413ft | 34.0° |
| 110 | George Springer | 12.8% | 98.2 | 374ft | 28.0° |
| 114 | Owen Caissie | 17.0% | 104.0 | 401ft | 23.0° |
| 116 | Gavin Sheets | 17.5% | 106.5 | 391ft | 31.0° |
| 121 | Wyatt Langford | 12.7% | 107.1 | 430ft | 36.0° |
| 125 | Ketel Marte | 12.3% | 108.1 | 375ft | 40.0° |
| 127 | Josh Bell | 14.3% | 107.1 | 435ft | 27.0° |
| 129 | Jeremy Peña | 7.8% | 95.8 | 347ft | 38.0° |
| 130 | Ty France | 12.1% | 104.1 | 409ft | 32.0° |
| 143 | Lawrence Butler | 11.6% | 105.2 | 412ft | 22.0° |
| 146 | Jonny DeLuca | 10.7% | 104.6 | 398ft | 29.0° |
| 149 | Julio Rodríguez | 11.4% | 101.3 | 408ft | 29.0° |
| 150 | Nolan Schanuel | 10.2% | 93.6 | 362ft | 33.0° |
| 161 | Matt Vierling | 5.8% | 103.6 | 408ft | 22.0° |
| 170 | Víctor Caratini | 8.3% | 106.1 | 430ft | 30.0° |
| 171 | Caleb Durbin | 12.7% | 100.5 | 367ft | 40.0° |
| 177 | Carson Kelly | 7.0% | 105.3 | 428ft | 28.0° |
| 180 | Jacob Wilson | 8.2% | 99.4 | 395ft | 32.0° |
| 201 | Mike Yastrzemski | 7.3% | 97.5 | 374ft | 36.0° |