← Case Studies
Golden Day
📅 2026-05-25
3
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
32
HRs in Slate
97%
Coverage
234
Scored
What Happened
An outstanding day: 3 of the top 5 ranked batters hit home runs.
A high-volume day with 32 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
6 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
11 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Anthony Kay: {'batter': 'Byron Buxton', 'rank': 1, 'score': 91.0}, {'batter': 'Ryan Kreidler', 'rank': 8, 'score': 72.0}
Merrill Kelly: {'batter': 'Casey Schmitt', 'rank': 4, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Harrison Bader', 'rank': 12, 'score': 71.0}
Luis Castillo: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 7, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Zack Gelof', 'rank': 10, 'score': 72.0}, {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 13, 'score': 71.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Byron Buxton | Anthony Kay | 33.7% | 91 | 5.7 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | 14.6% | |
| 2 | ✅ | Kyle Schwarber | Griffin Canning | 39.3% | 80 | 4.3 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 14.8% | 106.8 mph · 374ft · 20.0° |
| 3 | ✅ | Luke Raley | Aaron Civale | 37.3% | 78 | 5.0 | 1.25 | 🌧️ | 13.3% | 99.2 mph · 389ft · 32.0° |
| 4 | — | Casey Schmitt | Merrill Kelly | 31.4% | 76 | 6.3 | 1.02 | · | 16.6% | |
| 5 | ✅ | James Wood | Tanner Bibee | 24.9% | 75 | 4.3 | 1.05 | · | 14.8% | 107.7 mph · 412ft · 28.0° |
| 6 | — | Junior Caminero | Kyle Bradish | 24.1% | 73 | 4.1 | 1.15 | 🌤️ | 11.4% | |
| 7 | — | Nick Kurtz | Luis Castillo | 33.2% | 73 | 4.4 | 1.25 | · | 13.7% | |
| 8 | — | Ryan Kreidler | Anthony Kay | 21.0% | 72 | 5.7 | 1.12 | 🌧️ | 10.8% | |
| 9 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Tanner Gordon | 24.1% | 72 | 4.5 | 1.22 | · | 15.9% | |
| 10 | — | Zack Gelof | Luis Castillo | 30.5% | 72 | 4.4 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | 10.3% | |
| 11 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Nolan McLean | 36.3% | 71 | 3.2 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | 9.7% | |
| 12 | — | Harrison Bader | Merrill Kelly | 32.2% | 71 | 6.3 | 1.02 | 🌤️ | 12.9% | |
| 13 | ✅ | Shea Langeliers | Luis Castillo | 22.5% | 71 | 4.4 | 1.25 | 🌧️ | 12.9% | 104.1 mph · 412ft · 29.0° |
| 14 | — | Ben Rice | Michael Wacha | 26.6% | 70 | 4.1 | 0.86 | 🌧️ | 13.4% | |
| 15 | — | Angel Martínez | PJ Poulin | 26.7% | 69 | 5.0 | 1.05 | · | 10.2% |
All 32 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | 39.3% | 106.8 | 374ft | 20.0° |
| 3 | Luke Raley | 37.3% | 99.2 | 389ft | 32.0° |
| 5 | James Wood | 24.9% | 107.7 | 412ft | 28.0° |
| 13 | Shea Langeliers | 22.5% | 104.1 | 412ft | 29.0° |
| 32 | Munetaka Murakami | 25.3% | 105.7 | 375ft | 41.0° |
| 33 | CJ Abrams | 20.1% | 109.8 | 403ft | 25.0° |
| 34 | Christian Walker | 27.4% | 101.2 | 401ft | 23.0° |
| 35 | Jonathan Aranda | 14.5% | 105.6 | 371ft | 24.0° |
| 37 | JJ Bleday | 22.1% | 105.6 | 409ft | 29.0° |
| 43 | Christian Yelich | 23.6% | 101.8 | 381ft | 27.0° |
| 46 | Randy Arozarena | 16.2% | 104.1 | 437ft | 30.0° |
| 49 | Dominic Canzone | 17.5% | 104.3 | 397ft | 24.0° |
| 53 | Jacob Young | 16.0% | 101.3 | 389ft | 28.0° |
| 56 | Yordan Alvarez | 18.1% | 110.6 | 415ft | 20.0° |
| 62 | Rhys Hoskins | 11.0% | 106.6 | 377ft | 38.0° |
| 73 | Drew Romo | 18.0% | 93.4 | 352ft | 32.0° |
| 88 | Curtis Mead | 14.8% | 100.8 | 373ft | 29.0° |
| 89 | J. P. Crawford | 14.1% | 101.0 | 414ft | 26.0° |
| 92 | Salvador Perez | 12.6% | 107.3 | 422ft | 24.0° |
| 97 | Brooks Lee | 11.8% | 105.6 | 386ft | 37.0° |
| 101 | Marcus Semien | 8.0% | 105.6 | 403ft | 28.0° |
| 105 | Michael Busch | 9.6% | 105.5 | 409ft | 36.0° |
| 116 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 8.4% | 108.7 | 432ft | 28.0° |
| 122 | Luis García Jr. | 9.5% | 108.1 | 352ft | 19.0° |
| 131 | Cody Bellinger | 8.9% | 103.1 | 403ft | 35.0° |
| 147 | Ezequiel Tovar | 8.5% | 109.1 | 431ft | 30.0° |
| 150 | Ernie Clement | 6.5% | 98.9 | 372ft | 37.0° |
| 163 | Henry Davis | 8.5% | 103.1 | 413ft | 27.0° |
| 164 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 8.5% | 105.9 | 421ft | 28.0° |
| 167 | Tyler Stephenson | 10.6% | 103.3 | 367ft | 27.0° |
| 170 | Gabriel Moreno | 10.2% | 105.3 | 406ft | 26.0° |
| 195 | Brandon Marsh | 8.8% | 102.0 | 368ft | 25.0° |