← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-16
1
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
28
HRs in Slate
88%
Coverage
261
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 28 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
5 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
8 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jameson Taillon: {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 1, 'score': 92.0}, {'batter': 'Drew Romo', 'rank': 12, 'score': 82.0}, {'batter': 'Colson Montgomery', 'rank': 15, 'score': 79.0}
Huascar Brazobán: {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 4, 'score': 88.0}, {'batter': 'Paul Goldschmidt', 'rank': 8, 'score': 85.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 9, 'score': 84.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ✅ | Munetaka Murakami | Jameson Taillon | 42.9% | 92 | 5.7 | 0.97 | · | 22.0% | 109.0 mph · 428ft · 36.0° |
| 2 | — | Shea Langeliers | Trevor McDonald | 34.4% | 90 | 4.0 | 1.15 | 🌤️ | 16.4% | |
| 3 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Bubba Chandler | 35.2% | 89 | 5.5 | 0.72 | 🌤️ | 26.7% | |
| 4 | — | Aaron Judge | Huascar Brazobán | 36.4% | 88 | 3.5 | 0.97 | 🌤️ | 23.8% | |
| 5 | — | Ryan Waldschmidt | Tomoyuki Sugano | 33.2% | 87 | 5.6 | 1.17 | 🌤️ | 12.5% | |
| 6 | — | Mickey Moniak | Eduardo Rodriguez | 40.1% | 87 | 4.2 | 1.17 | · | 15.3% | |
| 7 | — | Luke Raley | Walker Buehler | 33.1% | 86 | 3.6 | 0.91 | 🌤️ | 23.9% | |
| 8 | — | Paul Goldschmidt | Huascar Brazobán | 24.9% | 85 | 3.5 | 0.97 | 🌤️ | 19.6% | |
| 9 | — | Ben Rice | Huascar Brazobán | 26.7% | 84 | 3.5 | 0.97 | · | 20.6% | |
| 10 | — | Matt Olson | Payton Tolle | 27.3% | 83 | 2.8 | 1.04 | · | 18.3% | |
| 11 | ✅ | Yordan Alvarez | Jacob deGrom | 29.4% | 82 | 2.8 | 0.99 | 🌤️ | 17.4% | 97.8 mph · 362ft · 30.0° |
| 12 | — | Drew Romo | Jameson Taillon | 37.6% | 82 | 5.7 | 0.97 | · | 15.4% | |
| 13 | — | Jordan Walker | Noah Cameron | 32.3% | 81 | 4.3 | 0.93 | · | 18.3% | |
| 14 | — | JJ Bleday | Joey Cantillo | 26.9% | 79 | 4.1 | 1.01 | · | 14.6% | |
| 15 | ✅ | Colson Montgomery | Jameson Taillon | 40.2% | 79 | 5.7 | 0.97 | · | 15.4% | 112.4 mph · 442ft · 33.0° |
All 28 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munetaka Murakami | 42.9% | 109.0 | 428ft | 36.0° |
| 11 | Yordan Alvarez | 29.4% | 97.8 | 362ft | 30.0° |
| 15 | Colson Montgomery | 40.2% | 112.4 | 442ft | 33.0° |
| 20 | Miguel Vargas | 29.1% | 108.4 | 421ft | 24.0° |
| 21 | Drake Baldwin | 37.8% | 106.2 | 421ft | 22.0° |
| 24 | Casey Schmitt | 29.6% | 96.9 | 355ft | 34.0° |
| 27 | Bryce Harper | 28.4% | 111.3 | 457ft | 28.0° |
| 30 | Brent Rooker | 18.7% | 109.5 | 407ft | 32.0° |
| 32 | Zach Cole | 22.8% | 95.9 | 361ft | 33.0° |
| 39 | Christian Walker | 30.7% | 109.1 | 422ft | 29.0° |
| 45 | Angel Martínez | 27.4% | 102.9 | 395ft | 33.0° |
| 50 | Willson Contreras | 8.8% | 106.1 | 426ft | 26.0° |
| 56 | Jac Caglianone | 12.9% | 113.4 | 428ft | 30.0° |
| 58 | Jackson Chourio | 8.4% | 102.6 | 400ft | 24.0° |
| 67 | Keibert Ruiz | 16.4% | 105.9 | 366ft | 40.0° |
| 69 | Gavin Sheets | 27.9% | 97.2 | 382ft | 29.0° |
| 88 | Samuel Basallo | 10.7% | 109.2 | 376ft | 22.0° |
| 101 | Dane Myers | 12.2% | 95.5 | 354ft | 30.0° |
| 102 | Andrew Benintendi | 8.1% | 106.4 | 406ft | 28.0° |
| 144 | Nick Castellanos | 8.7% | 102.4 | 401ft | 25.0° |
| 170 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 7.2% | 100.4 | 380ft | 35.0° |
| 174 | J.P. Crawford | 13.4% | 98.1 | 378ft | 27.0° |
| 184 | Jose Altuve | 7.4% | 104.5 | 358ft | 42.0° |
| 189 | Matt Vierling | 8.2% | 98.6 | 364ft | 25.0° |
| 216 | Trevor Larnach | 5.2% | 102.3 | 363ft | 23.0° |
| 231 | Jacob Young | 4.8% | 104.3 | 391ft | 27.0° |
| 249 | Tyler O'Neill | 4.5% | 110.9 | 402ft | 21.0° |
| 261 | Yohendrick Piñango | 5.3% | 100.1 | 348ft | 19.0° |