← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-13
0
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
23
HRs in Slate
79%
Coverage
261
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
7 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
14 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
6 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
5 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Kyle Bradish: {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 1, 'score': 62.0}, {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 2, 'score': 62.0}
Matthew Liberatore: {'batter': 'Shea Langeliers', 'rank': 3, 'score': 61.0}, {'batter': 'Carlos Cortes', 'rank': 6, 'score': 59.0}
Bryce Miller: {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 4, 'score': 60.0}, {'batter': 'Christian Walker', 'rank': 12, 'score': 55.0}
JR Ritchie: {'batter': 'Ian Happ', 'rank': 5, 'score': 59.0}, {'batter': 'Moisés Ballesteros', 'rank': 14, 'score': 54.0}
Jake Irvin: {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 7, 'score': 58.0}, {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 9, 'score': 56.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Ben Rice | Kyle Bradish | 44.1% | 62 | 4.1 | 1.28 | · | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Aaron Judge | Kyle Bradish | 52.9% | 62 | 4.1 | 1.28 | · | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Shea Langeliers | Matthew Liberatore | 36.7% | 61 | 6.4 | 1.12 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Bryce Miller | 25.9% | 60 | 3.1 | 1.14 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Ian Happ | JR Ritchie | 38.1% | 59 | 6.0 | 1.07 | 🔥 | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Carlos Cortes | Matthew Liberatore | 27.1% | 59 | 6.4 | 1.12 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Nathaniel Lowe | Jake Irvin | 38.4% | 58 | 4.1 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Jordan Walker | J.T. Ginn | 33.2% | 57 | 4.9 | 1.12 | · | nan% | |
| 9 | — | Sal Stewart | Jake Irvin | 25.1% | 56 | 4.1 | 1.28 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Matt Olson | Shota Imanaga | 26.7% | 56 | 2.8 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 11 | ✅ | Luke Raley | Lance McCullers Jr. | 43.8% | 55 | 5.1 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | nan% | 102.2 mph · 356ft · 36.0° |
| 12 | ✅ | Christian Walker | Bryce Miller | 16.5% | 55 | 3.1 | 1.14 | 🌤️ | nan% | 96.8 mph · 338ft · 32.0° |
| 13 | ✅ | Adley Rutschman | Max Fried | 16.9% | 54 | 2.7 | 1.28 | 🌤️ | nan% | 100.1 mph · 393ft · 37.0° |
| 14 | — | Moisés Ballesteros | JR Ritchie | 21.9% | 54 | 6.0 | 1.07 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Liam Hicks | Simeon Woods Richardson | 32.8% | 54 | 6.0 | 1.01 | · | nan% |
All 23 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Luke Raley | 43.8% | 102.2 | 356ft | 36.0° |
| 12 | Christian Walker | 16.5% | 96.8 | 338ft | 32.0° |
| 13 | Adley Rutschman | 16.9% | 100.1 | 393ft | 37.0° |
| 35 | Mickey Moniak | 21.2% | 103.4 | 372ft | 31.0° |
| 37 | Byron Buxton | 28.4% | 105.2 | 418ft | 26.0° |
| 41 | Drake Baldwin | 29.6% | 99.0 | 402ft | 30.0° |
| 52 | Colson Montgomery | 18.6% | 110.3 | 399ft | 25.0° |
| 56 | Nick Kurtz | 12.1% | 100.3 | 405ft | 30.0° |
| 63 | Gavin Sheets | 18.8% | 98.1 | 389ft | 25.0° |
| 97 | Daulton Varsho | 10.9% | 98.5 | 375ft | 27.0° |
| 99 | Jake Burger | 10.0% | 99.3 | 370ft | 35.0° |
| 100 | J.P. Crawford | 19.5% | 103.3 | 383ft | 38.0° |
| 121 | Tyler Stephenson | 10.6% | 105.5 | 406ft | 28.0° |
| 125 | Owen Caissie | 8.8% | 104.2 | 400ft | 30.0° |
| 139 | Angel Martínez | 10.8% | 106.3 | 378ft | 26.0° |
| 148 | Ryan O'Hearn | 11.5% | 100.4 | 392ft | 28.0° |
| 152 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 13.7% | 104.5 | 405ft | 28.0° |
| 165 | Mauricio Dubón | 5.9% | 104.1 | 383ft | 26.0° |
| 173 | Zach Neto | 9.3% | 107.8 | 361ft | 38.0° |
| 206 | TJ Rumfield | 7.1% | 105.9 | 415ft | 33.0° |
| 235 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 12.1% | 102.2 | 376ft | 26.0° |
| 244 | Trevor Story | 8.7% | 106.6 | 424ft | 28.0° |
| 251 | Justin Crawford | 5.7% | 103.4 | 403ft | 25.0° |