← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-11
1
Top-5 Hits
2
Top-15 Hits
7
HRs in Slate
100%
Coverage
99
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
3 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
15 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
5 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
5 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Brandon Young: {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 1, 'score': 61.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 3, 'score': 55.0}, {'batter': 'Giancarlo Stanton', 'rank': 12, 'score': 48.0}
George Kirby: {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 2, 'score': 58.0}, {'batter': 'Christian Walker', 'rank': 8, 'score': 52.0}
Ryan Weathers: {'batter': 'Pete Alonso', 'rank': 4, 'score': 53.0}, {'batter': 'Samuel Basallo', 'rank': 5, 'score': 53.0}, {'batter': 'Gunnar Henderson', 'rank': 7, 'score': 52.0}, {'batter': 'Coby Mayo', 'rank': 9, 'score': 50.0}
Roki Sasaki: {'batter': 'Casey Schmitt', 'rank': 6, 'score': 53.0}, {'batter': 'Matt Chapman', 'rank': 10, 'score': 50.0}, {'batter': 'Heliot Ramos', 'rank': 15, 'score': 48.0}
Peter Lambert: {'batter': 'Luke Raley', 'rank': 13, 'score': 48.0}, {'batter': 'Dominic Canzone', 'rank': 14, 'score': 48.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Aaron Judge | Brandon Young | 51.9% | 61 | 3.9 | 1.31 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Yordan Alvarez | George Kirby | 20.7% | 58 | 3.6 | 1.14 | · | nan% | |
| 3 | ✅ | Ben Rice | Brandon Young | 42.0% | 55 | 3.9 | 1.31 | 🌧️ | nan% | 100.6 mph · 374ft · 26.0° |
| 4 | — | Pete Alonso | Ryan Weathers | 25.6% | 53 | 3.4 | 1.31 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Samuel Basallo | Ryan Weathers | 21.3% | 53 | 3.4 | 1.31 | · | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Casey Schmitt | Roki Sasaki | 34.0% | 53 | 7.2 | 1.19 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Gunnar Henderson | Ryan Weathers | 33.3% | 52 | 3.4 | 1.31 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Christian Walker | George Kirby | 25.3% | 52 | 3.6 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 9 | ✅ | Coby Mayo | Ryan Weathers | 17.3% | 50 | 3.4 | 1.31 | 🌤️ | nan% | 99.6 mph · 389ft · 32.0° |
| 10 | — | Matt Chapman | Roki Sasaki | 14.0% | 50 | 7.2 | 1.19 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Andy Pages | Trevor McDonald | 25.7% | 50 | 2.5 | 1.19 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 12 | — | Giancarlo Stanton | Brandon Young | 16.1% | 48 | 3.9 | 1.31 | nan% | ||
| 13 | — | Luke Raley | Peter Lambert | 34.4% | 48 | 1.9 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 14 | — | Dominic Canzone | Peter Lambert | 16.2% | 48 | 1.9 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Heliot Ramos | Roki Sasaki | 16.9% | 48 | 7.2 | 1.19 | 🌧️ | nan% |
All 7 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ben Rice | 42.0% | 100.6 | 374ft | 26.0° |
| 9 | Coby Mayo | 17.3% | 99.6 | 389ft | 32.0° |
| 22 | Max Muncy | 11.0% | 104.1 | 396ft | 30.0° |
| 25 | Rafael Devers | 14.4% | 102.7 | 401ft | 26.0° |
| 29 | Julio Rodríguez | 12.2% | 106.6 | 414ft | 28.0° |
| 62 | Jonathan Aranda | 15.1% | 104.8 | 415ft | 34.0° |
| 72 | Andrés Giménez | 12.8% | 105.8 | 401ft | 31.0° |