← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-01
1
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
25
HRs in Slate
81%
Coverage
252
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 25 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
5 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
14 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
8 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jacob Misiorowski: {'batter': 'James Wood', 'rank': 1, 'score': 55.0}, {'batter': 'Curtis Mead', 'rank': 13, 'score': 48.0}
Will Warren: {'batter': 'Coby Mayo', 'rank': 2, 'score': 55.0}, {'batter': 'Taylor Ward', 'rank': 6, 'score': 51.0}, {'batter': 'Gunnar Henderson', 'rank': 7, 'score': 51.0}, {'batter': 'Samuel Basallo', 'rank': 8, 'score': 51.0}, {'batter': 'Pete Alonso', 'rank': 10, 'score': 49.0}, {'batter': 'Dylan Beavers', 'rank': 14, 'score': 48.0}, {'batter': 'Jeremiah Jackson', 'rank': 15, 'score': 46.0}
Jose Quintana: {'batter': 'Matt Olson', 'rank': 3, 'score': 52.0}, {'batter': 'Michael Harris II', 'rank': 9, 'score': 50.0}
Grant Holmes: {'batter': 'Hunter Goodman', 'rank': 4, 'score': 52.0}, {'batter': 'Mickey Moniak', 'rank': 11, 'score': 49.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | James Wood | Jacob Misiorowski | 45.7% | 55 | 3.2 | 1.10 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 2 | — | Coby Mayo | Will Warren | 14.4% | 55 | 2.8 | 1.25 | 🔥 | nan% | |
| 3 | ✅ | Matt Olson | Jose Quintana | 28.2% | 52 | 6.8 | 1.05 | · | nan% | 103.8 mph · 415ft · 27.0° |
| 4 | — | Hunter Goodman | Grant Holmes | 38.3% | 52 | 4.9 | 1.05 | · | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Carlos Cortes | Joey Cantillo | 35.6% | 52 | 4.0 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Taylor Ward | Will Warren | 5.3% | 51 | 2.8 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Gunnar Henderson | Will Warren | 44.8% | 51 | 2.8 | 1.25 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Samuel Basallo | Will Warren | 40.7% | 51 | 2.8 | 1.25 | · | nan% | |
| 9 | ✅ | Michael Harris II | Jose Quintana | 26.5% | 50 | 6.8 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | nan% | 107.3 mph · 385ft · 39.0° |
| 10 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Will Warren | 11.5% | 49 | 2.8 | 1.25 | · | nan% | 107.6 mph · 367ft · 30.0° |
| 11 | ✅ | Mickey Moniak | Grant Holmes | 35.2% | 49 | 4.9 | 1.05 | · | nan% | 105.5 mph · 439ft · 29.0° |
| 12 | — | Dominic Canzone | Cole Ragans | 22.5% | 49 | 6.1 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 13 | — | Curtis Mead | Jacob Misiorowski | 32.7% | 48 | 3.2 | 1.10 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 14 | — | Dylan Beavers | Will Warren | 12.4% | 48 | 2.8 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 15 | — | Jeremiah Jackson | Will Warren | 15.0% | 46 | 2.8 | 1.25 | · | nan% |
All 25 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matt Olson | 28.2% | 103.8 | 415ft | 27.0° |
| 9 | Michael Harris II | 26.5% | 107.3 | 385ft | 39.0° |
| 10 | Pete Alonso | 11.5% | 107.6 | 367ft | 30.0° |
| 11 | Mickey Moniak | 35.2% | 105.5 | 439ft | 29.0° |
| 37 | Munetaka Murakami | 40.6% | 111.1 | 413ft | 26.0° |
| 43 | Geraldo Perdomo | 8.2% | 100.8 | 366ft | 26.0° |
| 62 | Colson Montgomery | 33.9% | 101.4 | 385ft | 28.0° |
| 63 | Jac Caglianone | 12.6% | 107.5 | 347ft | 42.0° |
| 69 | Randy Arozarena | 9.3% | 96.5 | 359ft | 26.0° |
| 71 | Junior Caminero | 32.9% | 112.9 | 432ft | 25.0° |
| 80 | Kazuma Okamoto | 18.9% | 110.2 | 374ft | 22.0° |
| 84 | Rhys Hoskins | 6.1% | 95.0 | 376ft | 31.0° |
| 98 | Jorge Soler | 18.3% | 107.3 | 403ft | 23.0° |
| 99 | Brent Rooker | 7.0% | 108.9 | 422ft | 25.0° |
| 112 | Julio Rodríguez | 10.9% | 105.9 | 416ft | 27.0° |
| 117 | Alec Burleson | 13.4% | 106.5 | 390ft | 24.0° |
| 122 | Yandy Díaz | 10.4% | 99.9 | 364ft | 36.0° |
| 129 | Nolan Gorman | 12.3% | 107.6 | 388ft | 26.0° |
| 156 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 12.1% | 107.2 | 404ft | 28.0° |
| 160 | Byron Buxton | 23.2% | 98.2 | 364ft | 30.0° |
| 217 | Bryan Reynolds | 6.2% | 108.1 | 443ft | 28.0° |
| 226 | Bryson Stott | 5.5% | 100.2 | 386ft | 38.0° |
| 234 | Jarren Duran | 8.9% | 104.0 | 407ft | 25.0° |
| 238 | Danny Jansen | 7.0% | 102.7 | 377ft | 32.0° |
| 241 | Marcell Ozuna | 7.1% | 107.5 | 425ft | 26.0° |