Zach Eflin
RHP
TEX
2
HRs Allowed
22.2%
HR Rate (Pool)
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
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HR/9 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. >1.5 elite-bad (homer-friendly), 1.2–1.5 above avg, <0.9 elite-good (HR-resistant).
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HR/FB ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. >15% elite homer-prone, 12–15% above avg, <8% homer-resistant. League avg ~12%.
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Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
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Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
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FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
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FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
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xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
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FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
22.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
9
Pool Matchups
2
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
22.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.0 | 94.0mph | 99.7mph | 28.0° | 372ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 15 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.0 | 94.0mph | 99.7mph | 28.0° | 372ft | Flat +0.0pp |
| Last 30 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.0 | 94.0mph | 99.7mph | 28.0° | 372ft | Flat +0.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
94.0
Avg Max EV
107.5
Max EV Allowed
4
Hard-Hit Proxy · 66.7%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
99.7
Avg HR EV
28.0°
Avg HR Launch
372
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Corey Seager | 107.5mph | 101.7mph | 28° | 395ft | Yes |
| 2026-03-31 | Wyatt Langford | 107.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Josh Smith | 105.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Adolis Garcia | 104.2mph | 97.7mph | 28° | 349ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Corey Seager | #3 | 56 | Camden Yards | 101.7mph | 28.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-03-31 | Adolis Garcia | #12 | 48 | Camden Yards | 97.7mph | 28.0° | 349.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 34 | 23.6% | -5.2 | 82.9 | 26.1° | 0 |
| Curveball | 30 | 20.8% | -2.4 | 72.6 | -2.2° | 0 |
| Sinker | 28 | 19.4% | -0.4 | 91.7 | -8.7° | 0 |
| Changeup | 26 | 18.1% | -3.7 | 82.0 | -15.0° | 0 |
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Josh Smith | #52 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Marcus Semien | #34 | 40 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Jonah Heim | #30 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Josh Jung | #14 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Kyle Higashioka | #13 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Adolis Garcia | #12 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-31 | Jake Burger | #5 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Wyatt Langford | #4 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Corey Seager | #3 | 56 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |