2
HRs allowed
22.2%
HR rate (pool)
19.4%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 99.7 EV · 372 ft
max EV allowed 107.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zach Eflin.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
23.6%
82.9
26.1°
0
-5.3
Curveball Breaking
20.8%
72.6
-2.2°
0
-2.5
Sinker Hard
19.4%
91.7
-8.7°
0
-0.3
Changeup Offspeed
18.1%
82.0
-15.0°
0
-3.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate22.2%
Pool HR/game day2.0
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB19.4% 87
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Cutter
Hard · 23.6% usage
-5.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle26.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches34
Curveball
Breaking · 20.8% usage
-2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.6 mph
Avg launch angle-2.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches30
Sinker
Hard · 19.4% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against91.7 mph
Avg launch angle-8.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.1% usage
-3.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle-15.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches26
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zach Eflin.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 99.7 EV · 372 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-03-31
9
2
107.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zach Eflin isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.