2
HRs allowed
22.2%
HR rate (pool)
19.4%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
22.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 99.7 EV · 372 ft
max EV allowed 107.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zach Eflin.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
23.6%
82.9
26.1°
0
-5.1
Curveball Breaking
20.8%
72.6
-2.2°
0
-2.6
Sinker Hard
19.4%
91.7
-8.7°
0
-0.2
Changeup Offspeed
18.1%
82.0
-15.0°
0
-3.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate22.2%
Pool HR/game day2.0
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB19.4% 84
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed22.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-01
Cutter
Hard · 23.6% usage
-5.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle26.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches34
Curveball
Breaking · 20.8% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.6 mph
Avg launch angle-2.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches30
Sinker
Hard · 19.4% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against91.7 mph
Avg launch angle-8.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.1% usage
-3.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle-15.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches26
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zach Eflin.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 99.7 EV · 372 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-03-31
9
2
107.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zach Eflin isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Zach Eflin isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Zach Eflin
How many home runs has Zach Eflin allowed this season?
Zach Eflin has allowed 2 home runs across 1 scored game day in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Zach Eflin?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Zach Eflin include Abraham Toro (1), Adolis Garcia (1), Andres Gimenez (1) and 14 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.