0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
17.0%
Overall HR/FB
5.52
FIP
6.14
xFIP
#29
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
77
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 77th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 42.2%
BRK 41.8%
OFF 16.0%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 3 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
33.8%
86.3
20.2°
1
+0.2
Slider Breaking
30.7%
78.1
33.2°
0
-2.8
Splitter Offspeed
16.0%
78.7
43.2°
0
-1.5
Curveball Breaking
11.1%
87.1
37.0°
2
+6.6
Sinker Hard
8.4%
82.9
28.6°
0
+0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB17.0% 77
HR/9—
FIP5.52 90
xFIP6.14
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-16
Fastball
Hard · 33.8% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle20.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches97
Slider
Breaking · 30.7% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.1 mph
Avg launch angle33.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches88
Splitter
Offspeed · 16.0% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle43.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches46
Curveball
Breaking · 11.1% usage
+6.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle37.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches32
Sinker
Hard · 8.4% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle28.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches24
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Xzavion Curry.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Citi Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.978
Wind
5 mph from SSE
Temp
74°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
5
74°
+3
8:10p
5
73°
+4
9:10p
4
72°
+3
10:10p
3
71°
+2
11:10p
3
69°
+2
+3
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 4 mph from S
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
335ft
avg
CF
408ft
avg
RF
330ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
366ft
0 HRs allowed · deep
vs RHH → LF
354ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 330 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Xzavion Curry.
Common questions about Xzavion Curry
Is Xzavion Curry likely to give up a home run tonight?
Xzavion Curry pitches tonight (BAL @ NYM at Citi Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.