4
HRs allowed
14.8%
HR rate (pool)
10.9%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
31
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 31th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
25.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed
83.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 383 ft
max EV allowed 112.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 4 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Shane Smith.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.4%
78.8
42.9°
0
+2.3
Curveball Breaking
22.8%
77.8
8.5°
0
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
19.6%
72.0
15.9°
0
+6.0
Sinker Hard
17.5%
75.8
31.0°
0
+0.7
Slider Breaking
12.6%
88.6
6.9°
1
+8.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups27
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate14.8%
Pool HR/game day1.33
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.9% 31
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed25.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed83.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-01
Fastball
Hard · 27.4% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle42.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches78
Curveball
Breaking · 22.8% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches65
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.6% usage
+6.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.0 mph
Avg launch angle15.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches56
Sinker
Hard · 17.5% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.8 mph
Avg launch angle31.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches50
Slider
Breaking · 12.6% usage
+8.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches36
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Shane Smith.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 383 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-07
9
1
111.0
2026-04-01
9
2
103.6
2026-03-26
9
1
112.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Shane Smith isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Shane Smith isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Shane Smith
How many home runs has Shane Smith allowed this season?
Shane Smith has allowed 4 home runs across 3 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Shane Smith?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Shane Smith include Aaron Judge (1), Alec Burleson (1), Austin Wells (1) and 18 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.