4
HRs allowed
14.8%
HR rate (pool)
10.9%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
33
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 33th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
83.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 383 ft
max EV allowed 112.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 4 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Shane Smith.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.4%
78.8
42.9°
0
+2.4
Curveball Breaking
22.8%
77.8
8.5°
0
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
19.6%
72.0
15.9°
0
+6.0
Sinker Hard
17.5%
75.8
31.0°
0
+0.7
Slider Breaking
12.6%
88.6
6.9°
1
+8.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups27
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate14.8%
Pool HR/game day1.33
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.9% 33
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed83.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 27.4% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle42.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches78
Curveball
Breaking · 22.8% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches65
Changeup
Offspeed · 19.6% usage
+6.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.0 mph
Avg launch angle15.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches56
Sinker
Hard · 17.5% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.8 mph
Avg launch angle31.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches50
Slider
Breaking · 12.6% usage
+8.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches36
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Shane Smith.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 383 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-07
9
1
111.0
2026-04-01
9
2
103.6
2026-03-26
9
1
112.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Shane Smith isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.