9
HRs allowed
9.1%
HR rate (pool)
16.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.69
FIP
4.47
xFIP
+0.22
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
78
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 78th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.8 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Luis Severino.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
24.2%
83.6
14.5°
4
+0.8
Sinker Hard
23.5%
83.3
15.6°
3
+0.6
Fastball Hard
21.2%
84.3
36.2°
1
+1.3
Cutter Hard
20.9%
80.6
9.8°
2
+0.9
Changeup Offspeed
5.9%
79.3
7.3°
0
-1.1
Slider Breaking
4.3%
82.8
14.6°
0
-4.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups99
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate9.1%
Pool HR/game day0.82
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB16.2% 78
HR/9—
FIP4.69 72
xFIP4.47
FIP − xFIP+0.22 61
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sweeper
Breaking · 24.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches274
Sinker
Hard · 23.5% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle15.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches267
Fastball
Hard · 21.2% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle36.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches240
Cutter
Hard · 20.9% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches237
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.9% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.3 mph
Avg launch angle7.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches67
Slider
Breaking · 4.3% usage
-4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle14.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches49
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Luis Severino.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.8 EV · 390 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-29
9
3
112.1
2026-05-21
9
1
105.7
2026-05-16
9
1
107.7
2026-05-10
9
0
107.0
2026-05-05
9
2
107.3
2026-04-29
9
0
103.6
2026-04-24
9
0
106.4
2026-04-18
9
2
106.5
2026-04-08
9
0
107.4
2026-04-01
9
0
107.4
2026-03-27
9
0
107.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Luis Severino isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.