9
HRs allowed
9.1%
HR rate (pool)
16.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.69
FIP
4.47
xFIP
+0.22
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
73
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 73th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.8 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Luis Severino.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
25.0%
83.5
14.4°
4
+0.6
Sinker Hard
23.6%
83.3
15.6°
3
+0.6
Fastball Hard
21.0%
84.5
35.6°
1
+1.3
Cutter Hard
20.9%
80.6
9.8°
2
+0.9
Changeup Offspeed
6.1%
80.9
12.5°
0
-1.7
Slider Breaking
3.3%
83.8
15.4°
0
-3.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups99
HRs allowed (pool)9
Pool HR rate9.1%
Pool HR/game day0.82
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB16.2% 73
HR/9—
FIP4.69 74
xFIP4.47
FIP − xFIP+0.22 61
Barrel% allowed19.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sweeper
Breaking · 25.0% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle14.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches285
Sinker
Hard · 23.6% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle15.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches269
Fastball
Hard · 21.0% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle35.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches240
Cutter
Hard · 20.9% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.6 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches239
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.1% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle12.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches70
Slider
Breaking · 3.3% usage
-3.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle15.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches38
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Luis Severino.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
9 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.8 EV · 390 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-29
9
3
112.1
2026-05-21
9
1
105.7
2026-05-16
9
1
107.7
2026-05-10
9
0
107.0
2026-05-05
9
2
107.3
2026-04-29
9
0
103.6
2026-04-24
9
0
106.4
2026-04-18
9
2
106.5
2026-04-08
9
0
107.4
2026-04-01
9
0
107.4
2026-03-27
9
0
107.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Luis Severino isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Luis Severino isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
36
6
17%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
9
0
0%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Luis Severino
How many home runs has Luis Severino allowed this season?
Luis Severino has allowed 9 home runs across 11 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Luis Severino?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Luis Severino include Ben Rice (2), Aaron Judge (1), Andrew Benintendi (1) and 28 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.