2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
LAA Bullpen Proxy LAA
16 matchups scored · 2 game days
3 HRs Allowed
18.8% HR Rate (Pool)
12.8% Overall HR/FB
4.48 FIP
4.48 xFIP
+0.00 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.5
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
53th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
83.3%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.48
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
66th pctile
4.48
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.00
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
50th pctile
18.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
16
Pool Matchups
3
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
18.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 8 1 2 25.0% 2.0 99.1mph 103.1mph 30.0° 416ft Up +6.2pp
Last 15 16 2 3 18.8% 1.5 98.8mph 104.0mph 32.7° 412ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 30 16 2 3 18.8% 1.5 98.8mph 104.0mph 32.7° 412ft Flat +0.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
12 tracked BBE from 16 pool matchups
98.8
106.2
10
0
104.0
32.7°
412
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-18 Nick Kurtz 106.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-18 Zack Gelof 104.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-18 Shea Langeliers 103.8mph 103.8mph 30° 430ft Yes
2026-06-18 Tyler Soderstrom 103.6mph 102.4mph 30° 402ft Yes
2026-06-05 Freddie Freeman 105.8mph 105.8mph 38° 404ft Yes
2026-06-05 Mookie Betts 104.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-05 Shohei Ohtani 102.2mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
2 days · 3 total HRs
HRs Allowed
3 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-18 Shea Langeliers #6 78 Sutter Health Park 103.8mph 30.0° 430ft
2026-06-18 Tyler Soderstrom #10 72 Sutter Health Park 102.4mph 30.0° 402ft
2026-06-05 Freddie Freeman #35 62 Dodger Stadium 105.8mph 38.0° 404ft
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
83.3%
83.3%
All Scored Matchups
16 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-18 Jacob Wilson #127 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-18 Jeff Mcneil #122 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-18 Lawrence Butler #86 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-18 Carlos Cortes #58 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-18 Zack Gelof #16 67 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-18 Tyler Soderstrom #10 72 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-18 Shea Langeliers #6 78 🟡 B 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-18 Nick Kurtz #1 90 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-05 Kyle Tucker #130 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-05 Mookie Betts #100 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-05 Alex Freeland #91 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-05 Will Smith #43 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-05 Freddie Freeman #35 62 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-05 Shohei Ohtani #13 70 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-05 Andy Pages #12 71 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-05 Max Muncy #5 78 🟡 B ❄ COLD ·
Six home runs to freedom

LAA Bullpen Proxy's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

16 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.