0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
15.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.59
FIP
3.33
xFIP
#13
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
75
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 75th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 55.5%
OFF 34.7%
BRK 9.8%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 3
Long shots · 3 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
55.5%
87.0
24.8°
1
-0.7
Changeup Offspeed
34.7%
81.4
1.8°
2
-0.9
Slider Breaking
9.8%
80.3
-4.2°
0
+1.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.6% 75
HR/9—
FIP3.59 32
xFIP3.33
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-10
Fastball
Hard · 55.5% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.0 mph
Avg launch angle24.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches248
Changeup
Offspeed · 34.7% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle1.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches155
Slider
Breaking · 9.8% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle-4.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches44
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Kyle Hurt.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Dodger Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.230
Wind
9 mph from SSW
Temp
78°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
10:10p
9
78°
+17
11:10p
9
78°
+17
12:10a
9
78°
+17
1:10a
9
78°
+17
2:10a
9
78°
+17
+17
Strong green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 9 mph from SSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.