2
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
15.6%
Overall HR/FB
4.15
FIP
4.38
xFIP
-0.23
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
75
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 75th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.8 EV · 379 ft
max EV allowed 110.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jason Alexander.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
35.1%
80.0
12.7°
1
-1.9
Sinker Hard
23.4%
84.8
11.7°
1
+0.2
Fastball Hard
23.1%
85.1
23.7°
1
+4.5
Cutter Hard
7.4%
86.7
13.0°
0
+6.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.6% 75
HR/9—
FIP4.15 54
xFIP4.38
FIP − xFIP-0.23 34
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Changeup
Offspeed · 35.1% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle12.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches105
Sinker
Hard · 23.4% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle11.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches70
Fastball
Hard · 23.1% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle23.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches69
Cutter
Hard · 7.4% usage
+6.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.7 mph
Avg launch angle13.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches22
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jason Alexander.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.8 EV · 379 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-26
9
2
110.0
2026-05-19
9
0
106.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jason Alexander isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.