3
HRs allowed
6.7%
HR rate (pool)
10.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.21
FIP
5.35
xFIP
-1.14
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
26
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 26th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
15.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.9 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 116.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chad Patrick.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
42.1%
81.4
25.2°
6
-1.2
Fastball Hard
24.7%
82.5
31.2°
3
-0.7
Sinker Hard
23.4%
84.7
14.2°
4
-0.0
Slurve Breaking
8.6%
81.4
10.2°
0
+1.9
Changeup Offspeed
1.2%
77.3
31.6°
0
+6.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups45
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate6.7%
Pool HR/game day0.6
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.3% 26
HR/9—
FIP4.21 56
xFIP5.35
FIP − xFIP-1.14 3
Barrel% allowed15.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Cutter
Hard · 42.1% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle25.2°
HRs allowed6
Pitches765
Fastball
Hard · 24.7% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle31.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches448
Sinker
Hard · 23.4% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches426
Slurve
Breaking · 8.6% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle10.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches156
Changeup
Offspeed · 1.2% usage
+6.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.3 mph
Avg launch angle31.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches22
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chad Patrick.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.9 EV · 399 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-27
9
0
106.4
2026-05-04
9
0
109.6
2026-04-28
9
0
107.8
2026-04-22
9
2
106.6
2026-04-04
9
1
116.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chad Patrick isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Chad Patrick isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
18
0
0%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Chad Patrick
How many home runs has Chad Patrick allowed this season?
Chad Patrick has allowed 3 home runs across 5 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Chad Patrick?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Chad Patrick include Adley Rutschman (1), Alec Bohm (1), Brandon Marsh (1) and 13 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.