3
HRs allowed
6.7%
HR rate (pool)
10.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.21
FIP
5.35
xFIP
-1.14
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
28
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 28th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.9 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 116.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chad Patrick.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
42.1%
82.3
25.2°
4
-1.6
Fastball Hard
24.5%
83.6
30.5°
2
-0.6
Sinker Hard
21.7%
84.1
15.7°
4
+1.2
Slurve Breaking
10.3%
81.6
11.7°
0
+1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups45
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate6.7%
Pool HR/game day0.6
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.3% 28
HR/9—
FIP4.21 56
xFIP5.35
FIP − xFIP-1.14 4
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 42.1% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle25.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches525
Fastball
Hard · 24.5% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle30.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches305
Sinker
Hard · 21.7% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle15.7°
HRs allowed4
Pitches270
Slurve
Breaking · 10.3% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle11.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches128
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chad Patrick.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.9 EV · 399 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-27
9
0
106.4
2026-05-04
9
0
109.6
2026-04-28
9
0
107.8
2026-04-22
9
2
106.6
2026-04-04
9
1
116.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chad Patrick isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.