0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
23.8%
Overall HR/FB
4.53
FIP
3.71
xFIP
#6
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 83.3%
BRK 16.7%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (83.3% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
32.6%
81.6
6.5°
0
-2.0
Cutter Hard
25.9%
79.8
10.7°
1
+1.0
Fastball Hard
24.8%
80.2
25.4°
1
+0.9
Slurve Breaking
16.7%
78.7
2.1°
1
+4.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB23.8% 93
HR/9—
FIP4.53 68
xFIP3.71
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-28
Sinker
Hard · 32.6% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches117
Cutter
Hard · 25.9% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle10.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches93
Fastball
Hard · 24.8% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.2 mph
Avg launch angle25.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches89
Slurve
Breaking · 16.7% usage
+4.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches60
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Caleb Ferguson.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Great American Ball Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.176
Wind
6 mph from NNW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
6
81°
+11
8:10p
6
81°
+11
9:10p
6
81°
+11
10:10p
6
81°
+11
11:10p
6
81°
+11
+11
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 6 mph from NNW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
328ft
avg
CF
404ft
avg
RF
325ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
349ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
347ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: RF 325 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Caleb Ferguson.