1
HRs allowed
12.5%
HR rate (pool)
24.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.53
FIP
3.71
xFIP
+0.82
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
25.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 100.1 EV · 369 ft
max EV allowed 104.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Caleb Ferguson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups8
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate12.5%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB24.1% 93
HR/9—
FIP4.53 69
xFIP3.71
FIP − xFIP+0.82 87
Barrel% allowed25.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-12
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Caleb Ferguson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 100.1 EV · 369 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-28
8
1
104.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Caleb Ferguson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Caleb Ferguson isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Caleb Ferguson
How many home runs has Caleb Ferguson allowed this season?
Caleb Ferguson has allowed 1 home run across 1 scored game day in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.