1
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
6.2%
Overall HR/FB
2.48
FIP
3.29
xFIP
-0.81
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
6
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 6th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.7 EV · 17 ft
max EV allowed 110.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Burch Smith.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.2%
83.9
28.0°
2
-0.0
Curveball Breaking
25.2%
84.7
6.1°
0
-1.9
Cutter Hard
21.4%
84.2
2.9°
0
+3.5
Changeup Offspeed
9.5%
83.9
24.6°
0
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB6.2% 6
HR/9—
FIP2.48 5
xFIP3.29
FIP − xFIP-0.81 7
Barrel% allowed11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 43.2% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle28.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches127
Curveball
Breaking · 25.2% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches74
Cutter
Hard · 21.4% usage
+3.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle2.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches63
Changeup
Offspeed · 9.5% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle24.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Burch Smith.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.7 EV · 17 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-09
9
1
110.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Burch Smith isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Burch Smith isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Burch Smith
How many home runs has Burch Smith allowed this season?
Burch Smith has allowed 1 home run across 1 scored game day in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Burch Smith?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Burch Smith include Bobby Witt Jr. (1).
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.