1
HRs allowed
11.1%
HR rate (pool)
6.2%
Overall HR/FB
2.48
FIP
3.29
xFIP
-0.81
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
6
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 6th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.7 EV · 17 ft
max EV allowed 110.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Burch Smith.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.2%
83.9
28.0°
2
-0.0
Curveball Breaking
25.2%
84.7
6.1°
0
-1.9
Cutter Hard
21.4%
84.2
2.9°
0
+3.6
Changeup Offspeed
9.5%
83.9
24.6°
0
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate11.1%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB6.2% 6
HR/9—
FIP2.48 6
xFIP3.29
FIP − xFIP-0.81 9
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Fastball
Hard · 43.2% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle28.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches127
Curveball
Breaking · 25.2% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches74
Cutter
Hard · 21.4% usage
+3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle2.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches63
Changeup
Offspeed · 9.5% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle24.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Burch Smith.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.7 EV · 17 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-09
9
1
110.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Burch Smith isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.