6
HRs allowed
33.3%
HR rate (pool)
12.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.79
FIP
4.99
xFIP
-0.19
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
47
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 47th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
83.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.1 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 109.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 5 HR ↑
15D · 6 HR
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Falter.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
55.6%
87.6
24.4°
2
+4.5
Slider Breaking
22.8%
87.1
28.0°
1
+9.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)6
Pool HR rate33.3%
Pool HR/game day3.0
Top-15 matchups2
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB12.4% 47
HR/9—
FIP4.79 75
xFIP4.99
FIP − xFIP-0.19 36
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed83.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 55.6% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.6 mph
Avg launch angle24.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches100
Slider
Breaking · 22.8% usage
+9.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle28.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches41
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Falter.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
6 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.1 EV · 396 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-26
9
5
109.6
2026-05-19
9
1
108.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bailey Falter isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.