0
HRs allowed
0.0%
HR rate (pool)
8.1%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
11
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 11th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
max EV allowed 116.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Ashby.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
52.7%
84.5
13.7°
5
-0.7
Curveball Breaking
22.2%
78.9
-10.8°
0
-1.2
Changeup Offspeed
12.2%
79.7
1.1°
1
+0.2
Slider Breaking
11.3%
76.6
9.9°
1
-2.6
Fastball Hard
1.6%
82.0
36.4°
1
+8.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups9
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0.0%
Pool HR/game day0.0
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB8.1% 11
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed11.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 52.7% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle13.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches935
Curveball
Breaking · 22.2% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.9 mph
Avg launch angle-10.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches393
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.2% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle1.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches216
Slider
Breaking · 11.3% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.6 mph
Avg launch angle9.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches200
Fastball
Hard · 1.6% usage
+8.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle36.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches29
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Aaron Ashby.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 1 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-10
9
0
116.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Aaron Ashby isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Aaron Ashby isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Aaron Ashby
How many home runs has Aaron Ashby allowed this season?
Aaron Ashby has allowed 0 home runs across 1 scored game day in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.