⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
STL
@
WSH
Nationals Park · 9 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.94×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.752
Temp
48.1°F
Wind
9.8 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 50 🟠 C · · 68 0.190 90.6 7.8% 15.2% 407 12.5% 12.5% 20.7% 26
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 43 ⚪ D · · 116 0.169 91.0 6.5% 10.2% 408 11.1% 11.1% 9.7% 34
3 Nolan Gorman Nolan Gorman 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 128 0.165 89.6 6.3% 12.7% 409 12.5% 12.5% 17.8% 23
4 Brendan Donovan Brendan Donovan 40 ⚪ D · · 138 0.135 89.7 6.2% 6.9% 387 14.3% 14.3% 10.7% 24
5 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 151 0.180 91.2 7.0% 19.4% 407 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 30
6 Lars Nootbaar Lars Nootbaar 34 ⚪ D · · 176 0.128 91.3 6.7% 7.3% 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0
7 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 222 0.140 86.8 4.1% 7.5% 383 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 24
8 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 22 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 226 0.110 88.3 4.6% 5.7% 388 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 26
9 Victor Scott II Victor Scott II 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 237 0.080 86.1 4.0% 4.9% 397 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 28
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

6 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.