⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 5 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 6 James Wood 4 HRs · 7 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 8 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 9 Julio Rodríguez 4 HRs · 10 Ketel Marte 4 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
ATH
@
NYY
Yankee Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.14×
Weather Mod
-5.0%
cold air · strong wind in · roof open
Combined
0.570
Temp
48.0°F
Wind
14.5 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Aaron Judge Aaron Judge 86 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 1 0.357 95.4 15.6% 29.4% 408 28.6% 28.6% 39.3% 23
2 Ben Rice Ben Rice 83 🟢 A · 🔥 HOT 2 0.244 93.3 12.3% 17.1% 400 28.6% 28.6% 29.8% 20
3 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 25 0.207 88.3 8.6% 11.9% 386 14.3% 14.3% 12.5% 28
4 Trent Grisham Trent Grisham 62 🔵 C+ · · 27 0.229 91.1 11.8% 21.5% 389 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 22
5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 60 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 33 0.238 89.0 12.1% 20.7% 387 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 25
6 Austin Wells Austin Wells 57 🟠 C · · 40 0.217 90.6 10.0% 14.0% 380 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 15
7 Anthony Volpe Anthony Volpe 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 46 0.180 89.3 10.1% 11.0% 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 22
8 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 58 0.129 90.4 8.8% 6.5% 388 14.3% 14.3% 9.9% 8
9 Jasson Dominguez Jasson Dominguez 44 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 105 0.131 90.6 8.3% 9.7% 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 4
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Shea Langeliers Shea Langeliers 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 4 0.260 90.9 9.6% 18.6% 399 57.1% 57.1% 31.7% 24
2 Max Muncy Max Muncy 70 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 8 0.227 91.3 10.6% 16.8% 400 20.0% 20.0% 23.8% 42
3 Nick Kurtz Nick Kurtz 69 🔵 C+ · · 9 0.329 92.7 12.3% 30.8% 404 0.0% 0.0% 24.1% 13
4 Brent Rooker Brent Rooker 67 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 13 0.217 90.7 10.6% 15.2% 402 14.3% 14.3% 25.3% 20
5 JJ Bleday JJ Bleday 49 ⚪ D · · 75 0.192 88.7 8.0% 13.7% 386 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0
6 Tyler Soderstrom Tyler Soderstrom 46 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 91 0.198 91.6 9.7% 18.9% 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 22
7 Lawrence Butler Lawrence Butler 41 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 129 0.170 90.5 8.7% 16.3% 414 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 18
8 Luis Urias Luis Urias 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 175 0.108 86.2 5.5% 8.3% 381 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 1
9 Jacob Wilson Jacob Wilson 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 187 0.134 84.6 4.2% 10.5% 383 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 33
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.