⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
SF
@ 4:05p
ATH
Sutter Health Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.19×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
Unknown stadium
Combined
1.194
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Zack Gelof Zack Gelof 83 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 11 0.257 91.2 9.7% 30.8% 399 66.7% 100.0% 42.9% 33
2 Nick Kurtz Nick Kurtz 80 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 15 0.202 94.9 17.2% 38.9% 411 19.5% 25.0% 44.2% 32
3 Brent Rooker Brent Rooker 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 19 0.170 89.9 15.5% 26.3% 385 16.1% 27.3% 29.6% 29
4 Tyler Soderstrom Tyler Soderstrom 68 🔵 C+ · · 33 0.188 90.5 12.9% 15.6% 393 10.0% 16.7% 22.8% 32
5 Carlos Cortes Carlos Cortes 59 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 50 0.213 91.1 10.0% 21.1% 396 4.0% 0.0% 21.6% 22
6 Jonah Heim Jonah Heim 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 71 0.179 84.9 4.7% 0.0% 425 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 13
7 Lawrence Butler Lawrence Butler 43 ⚪ D · · 131 0.100 90.3 7.0% 22.2% 378 2.6% 0.0% 13.6% 16
8 Darell Hernaiz Darell Hernaiz 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 182 0.048 83.3 1.8% 0.0% 396 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 17
9 Jeff McNeil Jeff McNeil 25 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 226 0.086 85.5 0.9% 6.2% 395 2.4% 0.0% 10.5% 27
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Casey Schmitt Casey Schmitt 73 🟡 B · · 24 0.215 89.9 14.8% 11.1% 388 15.0% 23.1% 26.2% 28
2 Harrison Bader Harrison Bader 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 80 0.135 88.9 8.7% 28.6% 380 4.8% 10.0% 19.3% 10
3 Rafael Devers Rafael Devers 52 🟠 C · · 83 0.148 89.9 7.7% 10.0% 396 10.0% 23.1% 15.5% 29
4 Eric Haase Eric Haase 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 102 · 83.3 18.8% 0.0% 389 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 11
5 Daniel Susac Daniel Susac 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 125 0.175 89.0 4.3% 17.4% · 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 3
6 Willy Adames Willy Adames 43 ⚪ D · · 134 0.123 88.8 7.9% 0.0% 375 4.9% 0.0% 6.4% 40
7 Matt Chapman Matt Chapman 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 174 0.082 86.7 4.9% 5.0% 349 2.4% 0.0% 8.5% 31
8 Luis Arraez Luis Arraez 30 ⚪ D · · 204 0.070 87.0 · 0.0% 350 2.4% 7.7% 5.5% 44
9 Drew Gilbert Drew Gilbert 26 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 221 0.100 83.3 3.3% 25.0% 380 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 23
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.78

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.