⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
SEA
@ 1:40p
MIN
Target Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.86×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
cold air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
0.944
Temp
37.9°F
Wind
10.4 mph
out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Luke Raley Luke Raley 72 🟡 B · · 26 0.256 94.0 22.7% 35.7% 392 15.4% 15.4% 26.6% 18
2 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 62 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 52 0.205 86.1 12.7% 17.6% 387 25.0% 38.5% 19.2% 39
3 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 173 0.129 87.1 6.4% 23.5% 405 16.7% 16.7% 9.2% 34
4 Brendan Donovan Brendan Donovan 37 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 177 0.214 83.8 4.4% 30.0% 348 9.1% 0.0% 15.6% 6
5 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 35 ⚪ D · · 184 0.153 89.4 8.0% 14.3% 387 3.6% 7.7% 8.2% 35
6 Cole Young Cole Young 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 191 0.129 87.3 5.7% 9.5% 381 10.7% 7.7% 6.2% 39
7 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 195 0.099 87.8 5.3% 0.0% 426 7.7% 7.7% 5.3% 43
8 J.P. Crawford 31 ⚪ D · · 208 0.078 88.9 10.6% 0.0% 369 3.7% 8.3% 5.4% 38
9 Leo Rivas Leo Rivas 18 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 250 0.040 86.4 2.4% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 27
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 66 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 44 0.237 88.3 15.7% 30.4% 408 23.1% 40.0% 30.1% 33
2 Ryan Jeffers Ryan Jeffers 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 105 0.183 92.0 14.9% 25.0% 394 12.5% 11.1% 12.4% 25
3 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 41 ⚪ D · · 154 0.187 89.6 4.8% 25.0% 371 19.2% 18.2% 10.9% 34
4 Matt Wallner Matt Wallner 33 ⚪ D · · 194 0.118 89.7 8.7% 30.0% 413 12.0% 0.0% 6.4% 20
5 Trevor Larnach Trevor Larnach 32 ⚪ D · · 200 0.145 87.2 7.7% 9.1% 398 4.2% 0.0% 5.7% 24
6 Josh Bell Josh Bell 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 217 0.138 88.3 8.6% 14.3% 392 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 38
7 Austin Martin Austin Martin 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 225 0.119 85.8 4.8% 10.0% 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 20
8 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 17 ⚪ D · · 252 0.062 85.2 3.5% 12.5% 367 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% 35
9 Victor Caratini Victor Caratini 12 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 258 0.052 88.1 4.9% 14.3% 423 4.0% 0.0% 5.5% 20
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.