⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
PHI
@ 4:05p
PIT
PNC Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.72×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Combined
0.792
Temp
72.8°F
Wind
11.5 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Kyle Schwarber Kyle Schwarber 91 🔥 A+ · 🌤️ WARM 1 0.378 93.3 26.7% 50.0% 404 32.5% 50.0% 35.2% 34
2 Bryce Harper Bryce Harper 70 🟡 B · · 27 0.266 88.8 13.4% 30.4% 407 20.0% 25.0% 28.4% 38
3 Bryson Stott Bryson Stott 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 105 0.147 89.7 6.2% 7.1% 399 8.3% 18.2% 6.8% 39
4 Justin Crawford Justin Crawford 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 141 0.140 87.7 2.0% 12.5% 382 7.1% 18.2% 11.6% 25
5 Adolis García Adolis García 37 ⚪ D · · 151 0.130 92.7 8.0% 10.5% 388 3.4% 9.1% 4.9% 28
6 Brandon Marsh Brandon Marsh 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 175 0.150 89.9 6.5% 13.8% 398 5.3% 0.0% 7.8% 42
7 Trea Turner Trea Turner 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 214 0.111 89.8 4.3% 11.5% 383 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 42
8 J.T. Realmuto 22 ⚪ D · · 228 0.080 88.5 2.7% 7.1% 401 2.9% 0.0% 4.6% 32
9 Alec Bohm Alec Bohm 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 233 0.093 89.2 1.6% 6.7% 365 5.1% 8.3% 5.2% 35
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 63 🔵 C+ · · 40 0.280 88.5 13.3% 30.0% 401 14.7% 27.3% 23.4% 31
2 Oneil Cruz Oneil Cruz 59 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 52 0.220 95.9 18.4% 57.1% 410 24.3% 9.1% 15.6% 35
3 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 39 ⚪ D · · 143 0.175 90.3 7.1% 14.3% 392 15.4% 18.2% 9.2% 34
4 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 161 0.114 89.3 8.8% 22.2% 408 10.0% 9.1% 8.8% 29
5 Konnor Griffin Konnor Griffin 32 ⚪ D · · 181 0.139 87.6 9.0% 0.0% 401 4.0% 9.1% 4.2% 34
6 Henry Davis Henry Davis 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 212 0.105 90.9 7.2% 13.3% 400 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 15
7 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 215 0.138 91.1 7.0% 28.6% 415 10.5% 0.0% 7.0% 34
8 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 6 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 258 0.049 87.1 1.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 30
9 Jared Triolo Jared Triolo 4 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 261 0.049 86.6 2.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 19
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.79

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.