⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
NYY
@ 7:15p
NYM
Citi Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.97×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.970
Temp
62.9°F
Wind
10 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Aaron Judge Aaron Judge 88 🟢 A +525 🌤️ WARM 4 0.350 93.5 24.5% 50.0% 406 29.7% 30.0% 32.4% 28
2 Ben Rice Ben Rice 79 🟡 B +950 🌧️ COOL 12 0.364 94.0 20.4% 37.5% 389 25.7% 11.1% 32.4% 24
3 Trent Grisham Trent Grisham 55 🟠 C +950 · 68 0.190 91.8 14.4% 13.8% 381 8.3% 10.0% 11.5% 38
4 Spencer Jones Spencer Jones 51 🟠 C · · 83 0.190 90.4 15.2% 13.8% 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 42
5 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 98 0.201 90.1 8.2% 9.4% 374 8.3% 10.0% 10.2% 42
6 Ryan McMahon Ryan McMahon 38 ⚪ D · · 162 0.108 91.7 8.2% 13.6% 356 14.3% 11.1% 7.4% 28
7 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 209 0.124 88.6 5.8% 13.0% 386 11.1% 10.0% 7.4% 30
8 Austin Wells Austin Wells 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 217 0.100 90.7 5.4% 12.5% 372 9.7% 0.0% 7.3% 18
9 Anthony Volpe Anthony Volpe 20 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 234 0.058 87.6 4.5% 7.7% 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 2
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mark Vientos Mark Vientos 62 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 45 0.191 91.1 12.8% 23.8% 406 13.9% 23.1% 21.9% 36
2 Juan Soto Juan Soto 59 🟠 C +950 🌧️ COOL 57 0.202 92.5 18.4% 20.0% 389 10.0% 16.7% 9.4% 37
3 MJ Melendez MJ Melendez 56 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 64 0.212 95.0 15.6% 18.2% 373 50.0% 0.0% 8.4% 14
4 Brett Baty Brett Baty 33 ⚪ D · · 187 0.113 90.5 8.0% 4.8% 397 4.9% 7.7% 4.2% 23
5 Carson Benge Carson Benge 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 192 0.107 90.1 5.9% 15.8% 403 3.6% 7.7% 5.1% 34
6 Marcus Semien Marcus Semien 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 204 0.098 86.5 8.1% 6.2% 396 4.9% 15.4% 7.0% 35
7 Luis Torrens Luis Torrens 19 ⚪ D · · 238 0.078 89.6 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 16
8 Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 15 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 246 0.064 90.3 4.2% 5.3% 365 4.9% 0.0% 6.0% 42
9 A.J. Ewing 6 ⚪ D · · 259 · · · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.80

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.