⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
MIN
@ 7:10p
NYM
Citi Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.90×
Weather Mod
-5.0%
cold air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.450
Temp
47.8°F
Wind
13.8 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 73 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 15 0.208 88.3 15.7% 19.2% 408 19.0% 40.0% 20.5% 35
2 Ryan Jeffers Ryan Jeffers 65 🔵 C+ · · 22 0.216 92.0 14.9% 17.6% 394 10.5% 22.2% 20.4% 22
3 Tristan Gray Tristan Gray 57 🟠 C · · 37 0.222 88.8 13.3% 50.0% 390 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 16
4 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 46 0.175 89.6 4.8% 25.0% 371 15.0% 30.0% 17.1% 38
5 Kody Clemens Kody Clemens 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 47 0.151 92.0 17.1% 15.4% 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 22
6 Josh Bell Josh Bell 41 ⚪ D · · 79 0.161 88.3 8.6% 14.3% 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 39
7 Trevor Larnach Trevor Larnach 38 ⚪ D · · 84 0.118 87.2 7.7% 12.5% 398 5.6% 14.3% 6.9% 23
8 Austin Martin Austin Martin 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 97 0.135 85.8 4.8% 12.5% 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 19
9 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 23 ⚪ D · · 131 0.061 85.2 3.5% 4.2% 367 4.8% 0.0% 5.6% 38
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Francisco Alvarez Francisco Alvarez 50 🟠 C · · 48 0.200 88.6 16.4% 28.6% 415 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 28
2 Juan Soto Juan Soto 46 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 64 0.122 89.1 14.3% 14.3% 344 7.1% 0.0% 6.6% 10
3 Carson Benge Carson Benge 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 103 0.110 91.0 5.6% 16.7% 387 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 26
4 Brett Baty Brett Baty 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 108 0.120 90.9 9.3% 7.7% 414 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 19
5 Mark Vientos Mark Vientos 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 125 0.122 88.6 3.8% 13.3% 420 12.5% 14.3% 6.6% 27
6 Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 24 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 127 0.073 91.1 3.6% 7.1% 344 4.8% 11.1% 6.0% 38
7 Marcus Semien Marcus Semien 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 132 0.087 86.8 8.1% 3.5% 407 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 34
8 Luis Robert Jr. 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 135 0.109 90.5 3.1% 11.8% 400 12.5% 0.0% 6.4% 33
9 Ronny Mauricio Ronny Mauricio 4 ⚪ D · · 161 · · 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 5
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.83

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.