⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
MIL
@ 6:45p
WSH
Nationals Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.10×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cool air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.989
Temp
55.9°F
Wind
6.9 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 James Wood James Wood 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 1 0.311 97.3 · 50.0% 404 35.3% 33.3% 45.7% 24
2 Curtis Mead Curtis Mead 59 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 5 0.258 89.3 · 30.8% 394 33.3% 40.0% 32.7% 21
3 CJ Abrams CJ Abrams 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 39 0.238 89.7 · 34.8% 388 18.8% 16.7% 28.3% 34
4 Brady House Brady House 43 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 57 0.144 89.6 · 27.3% 387 13.3% 20.0% 18.5% 25
5 Daylen Lile Daylen Lile 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 66 0.129 87.7 · 11.8% 400 12.5% 18.2% 15.8% 33
6 Luis García Jr. 27 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 151 0.105 92.4 · 5.9% 405 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 33
7 Jorbit Vivas Jorbit Vivas 27 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 152 0.051 82.5 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 24
8 Jacob Young Jacob Young 19 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 212 0.114 89.3 · 20.0% 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 39
9 Nasim Nuñez Nasim Nuñez 14 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 235 0.011 84.5 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 31
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gary Sánchez Gary Sánchez 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 18 0.311 89.3 · 42.9% 405 22.2% 0.0% 21.9% 23
2 Brice Turang Brice Turang 45 ⚪ D · · 45 0.220 93.2 · 26.3% 401 10.7% 9.1% 17.5% 33
3 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 67 0.209 93.4 · 33.3% 395 15.4% 0.0% 18.2% 36
4 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 85 0.094 86.1 · 14.3% 402 8.0% 11.1% 10.3% 35
5 William Contreras William Contreras 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 148 0.112 89.6 · 27.3% 404 7.4% 10.0% 11.1% 43
6 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 155 0.135 90.2 · 16.7% 420 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 22
7 Luis Rengifo Luis Rengifo 23 ⚪ D · · 186 0.087 87.1 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 35
8 David Hamilton David Hamilton 14 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 236 0.029 84.6 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 30
9 Brandon Lockridge Brandon Lockridge 12 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 245 0.040 85.0 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 14
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.