⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
MIL
@ 1:15p
STL
Busch Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.90×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind in · roof open
Combined
0.723
Temp
50.1°F
Wind
4.6 mph
in
Roof
open
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 51 🟠 C · · 29 0.253 95.7 · 36.4% 406 19.0% 18.2% 29.4% 30
2 Nathan Church Nathan Church 48 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 35 0.200 87.2 · 31.2% 387 15.8% 16.7% 22.9% 41
3 JJ Wetherholt JJ Wetherholt 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 65 0.203 90.3 · 19.2% 394 5.9% 8.3% 24.1% 44
4 Iván Herrera Iván Herrera 39 ⚪ D · · 87 0.181 90.7 · 18.8% 400 10.0% 25.0% 16.8% 31
5 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 36 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 112 0.176 91.1 · 18.2% 414 15.6% 18.2% 14.3% 34
6 Nolan Gorman Nolan Gorman 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 122 0.143 88.3 · 19.2% 403 9.7% 8.3% 11.8% 34
7 Pedro Pagés Pedro Pagés 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 146 0.183 85.7 · 23.1% 397 7.7% 0.0% 22.8% 20
8 Victor Scott II Victor Scott II 24 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 201 0.053 87.7 · 14.3% 415 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 21
9 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 23 ⚪ D · · 208 0.107 86.3 · 8.3% 373 3.2% 0.0% 7.9% 35
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brice Turang Brice Turang 39 ⚪ D · · 86 0.220 93.0 · 30.0% 404 12.1% 8.3% 16.3% 30
2 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 133 0.209 92.8 · 30.8% 395 11.1% 0.0% 15.8% 29
3 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 157 0.094 85.0 · 14.3% 402 6.7% 9.1% 9.5% 34
4 William Contreras William Contreras 26 ⚪ D · · 188 0.112 89.9 · 27.3% 404 9.4% 16.7% 8.2% 46
5 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 23 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 207 0.130 89.6 · 16.0% 408 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 4
6 Andrew Vaughn Andrew Vaughn 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 212 0.122 88.8 · 14.3% 347 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 3
7 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 216 0.135 90.8 · 14.3% 420 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 26
8 David Hamilton David Hamilton 8 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 265 0.029 84.9 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 27
9 Joey Ortiz Joey Ortiz 5 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 269 0.000 86.1 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 18
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.