⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
MIA
@ 4:10p
NYM
Citi Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.10×
Weather Mod
-6.0%
cool air · strong wind in · roof open
Combined
0.441
Temp
58.8°F
Wind
23.0 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Juan Soto Juan Soto 75 🟡 B · · 13 0.282 92.8 10.8% 36.0% 400 22.0% 50.0% 26.6% 35
2 Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 48 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 120 0.094 90.9 6.7% 3.0% 389 7.4% 16.7% 8.7% 45
3 Mark Vientos Mark Vientos 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 136 0.164 90.4 8.0% 18.5% 412 12.5% 9.1% 10.2% 39
4 Carson Benge Carson Benge 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 199 0.082 89.8 7.1% 10.0% 403 2.4% 0.0% 6.2% 43
5 Marcus Semien Marcus Semien 35 ⚪ D · · 205 0.095 86.0 7.0% 8.1% 398 5.6% 8.3% 7.1% 40
6 Jared Young Jared Young 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 217 0.065 87.6 9.6% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 2
7 A.J. Ewing 24 ⚪ D · · 242 · 89.3 7.1% 0.0% 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0
8 Hayden Senger Hayden Senger 12 ⚪ D · · 267 · · · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5
9 Vidal Bruján Vidal Bruján 12 ⚪ D · · 268 · · · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 1
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 139 0.145 91.6 4.4% 20.0% 395 8.8% 18.2% 13.4% 17
2 Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 160 0.136 90.2 3.2% 13.6% 378 3.2% 7.7% 9.9% 28
3 Joe Mack Joe Mack 42 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 161 0.143 89.0 1.9% 12.5% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 14
4 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 177 0.197 86.5 2.7% 27.0% 378 19.2% 8.3% 11.8% 40
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 186 0.165 87.8 3.2% 6.1% 396 9.1% 15.4% 7.3% 45
6 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 221 0.133 90.4 3.3% 9.7% 396 5.5% 0.0% 7.9% 46
7 Christopher Morel Christopher Morel 28 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 232 0.049 88.1 2.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 11
8 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 23 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 245 0.099 87.2 2.5% 6.7% 374 7.5% 0.0% 5.9% 31
9 Leo Jiménez 21 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 253 0.019 90.6 3.5% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 8
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.70

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.