⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
LAA
@ 4:10p
TB
Tropicana Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.14×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.143
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 67 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 24 0.210 92.6 9.2% 50.0% 407 23.5% 18.2% 21.7% 35
2 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 64 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 37 0.198 90.8 9.3% 12.5% 395 16.0% 18.2% 16.2% 31
3 Yandy Díaz Yandy Díaz 62 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 47 0.176 90.6 7.9% 20.0% 383 17.1% 30.0% 20.3% 30
4 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 210 0.080 82.6 3.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 20
5 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 222 0.083 87.8 3.1% 0.0% 379 5.0% 0.0% 6.6% 29
6 Ryan Vilade Ryan Vilade 29 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 227 0.139 88.5 4.7% 7.1% 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 17
7 Ben Williamson Ben Williamson 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 231 0.091 89.1 2.8% 14.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 1
8 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 24 ⚪ D · · 243 0.069 84.2 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 41
9 Nick Fortes Nick Fortes 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 256 0.067 87.4 2.5% 0.0% 408 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 24
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mike Trout Mike Trout 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 29 0.239 91.0 12.6% 27.8% 407 17.3% 8.3% 21.4% 37
2 Zach Neto Zach Neto 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 40 0.200 89.8 9.4% 19.1% 399 15.4% 16.7% 25.1% 34
3 Jorge Soler Jorge Soler 55 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 78 0.207 88.6 9.2% 37.5% 403 16.0% 9.1% 18.6% 32
4 Jo Adell Jo Adell 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 101 0.140 91.2 8.0% 7.1% 411 11.5% 16.7% 10.7% 33
5 Vaughn Grissom Vaughn Grissom 50 🟠 C · · 111 0.146 91.1 7.2% 18.8% 392 14.3% 20.0% 10.8% 36
6 Oswald Peraza Oswald Peraza 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 122 0.171 86.6 8.0% 12.5% 387 11.1% 10.0% 11.7% 24
7 Wade Meckler Wade Meckler 43 ⚪ D · · 152 0.134 85.5 9.2% 14.3% 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 18
8 Donovan Walton Donovan Walton 26 ⚪ D · · 236 · 86.0 7.4% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 14
9 Sebastián Rivero Sebastián Rivero 22 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 248 0.000 83.0 4.7% 17.9% · 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 7
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.70

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.