⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
KC
@ 4:05p
TEX
Globe Life Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.04×
Weather Mod
+5.0%
hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof
Combined
1.557
Temp
92.5°F
Wind
15.0 mph
slight_out
Roof
retractable
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Burger Jake Burger 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 51 0.193 90.5 10.3% 25.8% 393 16.0% 27.3% 22.3% 33
2 Joc Pederson Joc Pederson 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 62 0.189 91.6 9.6% 18.8% 388 14.3% 27.3% 17.2% 29
3 Brandon Nimmo Brandon Nimmo 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 74 0.161 91.8 11.6% 15.4% 411 11.8% 25.0% 13.7% 37
4 Ezequiel Duran Ezequiel Duran 47 ⚪ D · · 124 0.172 90.8 8.5% 15.8% 370 12.5% 8.3% 10.4% 37
5 Josh Jung Josh Jung 45 ⚪ D · · 138 0.161 89.7 8.0% 17.9% 386 12.0% 9.1% 10.1% 35
6 Nicky Lopez Nicky Lopez 42 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 159 0.086 86.5 8.0% 0.0% 397 33.3% 33.3% 8.8% 8
7 Danny Jansen Danny Jansen 41 ⚪ D · · 168 0.139 87.9 8.1% 13.3% 398 6.2% 12.5% 8.7% 19
8 Michael Helman Michael Helman 35 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 201 0.170 78.2 9.2% 8.1% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 11
9 Alejandro Osuna Alejandro Osuna 17 ⚪ D · · 257 0.026 88.3 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 35
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Salvador Perez Salvador Perez 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 61 0.182 89.0 8.1% 20.6% 395 17.0% 25.0% 21.9% 35
2 Bobby Witt Jr. 57 🟠 C · · 68 0.191 93.8 9.8% 18.2% 405 15.1% 16.7% 14.1% 38
3 Jac Caglianone Jac Caglianone 50 🟠 C · · 108 0.152 93.2 10.5% 17.4% 408 8.5% 9.1% 10.2% 26
4 Carter Jensen Carter Jensen 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 185 0.155 89.6 7.7% 16.7% 387 10.8% 0.0% 10.3% 26
5 Michael Massey Michael Massey 37 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 190 0.170 91.1 7.6% 8.1% 402 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 23
6 Vinnie Pasquantino Vinnie Pasquantino 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 211 0.123 88.4 7.4% 13.5% 398 9.8% 0.0% 8.4% 33
7 Maikel Garcia Maikel Garcia 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 214 0.120 90.3 5.6% 3.5% 398 5.9% 0.0% 7.2% 43
8 Isaac Collins Isaac Collins 30 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 223 0.095 88.6 7.9% 10.5% 377 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 21
9 Kyle Isbel Kyle Isbel 29 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 225 0.119 87.7 5.2% 17.6% 390 6.4% 0.0% 8.9% 22
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.70

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.