HOU
@
1:40p
MIN
Park Factor
0.96×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cold air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
0.866
Temp
40.4°F
Wind
8.1 mph
out
Roof
open
Mike Burrows
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Byron Buxton | 91 | 🔥 A+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 1 | 0.320 | 89.5 | 20.5% | 40.0% | 393 | 32.5% | 33.3% | 34.8% | 24 |
| 2 |
|
Kody Clemens | 54 | 🟠 C | · | · | 61 | 0.192 | 92.2 | 14.1% | 14.3% | 402 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Tristan Gray | 47 | ⚪ D | · | · | 94 | 0.152 | 88.9 | 10.2% | 22.2% | 390 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12 |
| 4 |
|
Ryan Kreidler | 46 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 99 | 0.158 | 89.6 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 412 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 6 |
| 5 |
|
Josh Bell | 44 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 109 | 0.111 | 89.8 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 397 | 3.4% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 29 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Larnach | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 189 | 0.113 | 85.8 | 7.0% | 11.8% | 381 | 5.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Victor Caratini | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 214 | 0.039 | 88.7 | 4.6% | 10.0% | 423 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 17 |
| 8 |
|
Luke Keaschall | 23 | ⚪ D | · | · | 232 | 0.070 | 84.3 | 3.6% | 8.0% | 367 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 28 |
| 9 |
|
James Outman | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 233 | 0.055 | 85.6 | · | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 12 |
Joe Ryan
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Yordan Alvarez | 74 | 🟡 B | · | 🌧️ COOL | 15 | 0.321 | 94.4 | 17.1% | 23.7% | 393 | 31.2% | 18.2% | 30.4% | 26 |
| 2 |
|
Christian Walker | 57 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 52 | 0.245 | 90.9 | 11.9% | 35.7% | 394 | 21.7% | 18.2% | 13.7% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Zach Dezenzo | 45 | ⚪ D | · | · | 105 | 0.184 | 84.6 | 13.6% | 15.2% | 359 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Jake Meyers | 40 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 130 | 0.135 | 86.7 | 12.1% | 20.0% | 393 | 7.1% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 3 |
| 5 |
|
Brice Matthews | 38 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 149 | 0.177 | 88.1 | 7.7% | 15.4% | 398 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 34 |
| 6 |
|
Christian Vázquez | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 163 | 0.171 | 87.2 | 2.7% | 18.2% | 374 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 23 |
| 7 |
|
Cam Smith | 35 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 165 | 0.121 | 88.4 | 13.1% | 16.7% | 406 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 20 |
| 8 |
|
Isaac Paredes | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 169 | 0.111 | 87.4 | 4.7% | 14.3% | 372 | 6.7% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 35 |
| 9 |
|
Jeremy Peña | 18 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 244 | 0.093 | 86.3 | 2.2% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 8 |