⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
HOU
@ 2:20p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.00×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.999
Temp
56.0°F
Wind
13.8 mph
cross
Roof
open
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Yordan Alvarez Yordan Alvarez 83 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 7 0.321 94.2 17.3% 22.5% 393 30.3% 18.2% 40.3% 29
2 Christian Walker Christian Walker 68 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 27 0.245 90.9 11.7% 34.5% 394 21.3% 18.2% 30.0% 36
3 Cam Smith Cam Smith 45 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 116 0.121 88.7 13.6% 14.3% 406 8.9% 0.0% 10.5% 21
4 Yainer Diaz Yainer Diaz 44 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 121 0.109 87.8 3.4% 11.8% 380 5.1% 0.0% 17.0% 35
5 Isaac Paredes Isaac Paredes 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 122 0.111 87.2 4.6% 15.6% 372 6.5% 10.0% 11.8% 37
6 Jose Altuve Jose Altuve 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 123 0.120 86.3 6.2% 20.0% 373 7.1% 12.5% 11.5% 26
7 Carlos Correa Carlos Correa 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 128 0.139 89.2 10.3% 0.0% 384 3.6% 0.0% 8.7% 25
8 Brice Matthews Brice Matthews 42 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 133 0.177 88.1 7.7% 15.4% 398 9.5% 0.0% 14.3% 32
9 Christian Vázquez Christian Vázquez 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 181 0.171 87.5 2.7% 15.4% 374 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 25
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 71 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 23 0.232 90.3 17.0% 33.3% 400 22.4% 8.3% 14.1% 19
2 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 60 0.219 90.9 12.4% 25.0% 390 7.7% 0.0% 10.9% 11
3 Michael Busch Michael Busch 49 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 86 0.125 88.2 11.5% 10.8% 401 8.2% 8.3% 5.2% 26
4 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 46 ⚪ D · · 112 0.166 90.3 8.9% 13.8% 398 14.3% 8.3% 8.9% 28
5 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 129 0.226 88.8 7.4% 28.6% 414 10.0% 0.0% 15.1% 28
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 34 ⚪ D · · 189 0.113 89.1 6.3% 20.7% 390 6.4% 8.3% 7.9% 34
7 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 191 0.133 90.7 7.8% 14.3% 382 10.4% 8.3% 5.8% 28
8 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 215 0.098 90.0 8.5% 0.0% 414 4.4% 0.0% 5.2% 21
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 23 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 234 0.142 85.3 1.6% 6.5% 383 8.2% 0.0% 6.3% 45
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.