⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
CWS
@ 3:40p
AZ
Chase Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.90×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
mild air · steady crosswind · retractable roof
Combined
0.900
Temp
68.7°F
Wind
8.1 mph
cross
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 72 🟡 B · · 17 0.283 89.3 15.0% 35.0% 402 50.0% 42.9% 27.1% 28
2 Munetaka Murakami Munetaka Murakami 69 🔵 C+ · · 19 0.366 96.4 25.5% 45.8% 415 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 0
3 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 23 0.220 88.6 13.2% 18.5% 394 33.3% 37.5% 19.7% 37
4 Everson Pereira Everson Pereira 63 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 25 0.265 89.1 14.3% 30.0% 407 40.0% 25.0% 23.9% 24
5 Andrew Benintendi Andrew Benintendi 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 43 0.184 89.9 12.2% 11.1% 391 12.5% 14.3% 13.7% 26
6 Sam Antonacci Sam Antonacci 44 ⚪ D · · 68 0.215 88.9 11.1% 14.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0
7 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 16 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 149 0.088 88.9 4.2% 6.7% 417 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 33
8 Tristan Peters Tristan Peters 13 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 152 0.053 87.6 4.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 16
9 Reese McGuire Reese McGuire 10 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 154 0.000 74.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 11
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 61 🔵 C+ · · 28 0.314 87.3 8.2% 50.0% 402 22.2% 22.2% 28.5% 33
2 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 60 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 30 0.284 90.3 12.3% 18.8% 401 20.0% 20.0% 13.6% 24
3 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 49 0.167 83.9 7.6% 22.2% 398 15.8% 30.0% 16.4% 30
4 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 78 0.156 92.9 10.4% 25.0% 411 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 30
5 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 82 0.210 85.6 7.9% 11.1% 351 11.1% 11.1% 11.2% 19
6 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 104 0.143 87.5 6.5% 14.3% 420 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 21
7 Aramis Garcia Aramis Garcia 31 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 107 0.123 90.1 8.9% 10.5% 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 1
8 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 121 0.164 90.9 7.5% 7.1% 415 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 19
9 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 140 0.148 86.8 2.7% 7.1% 398 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 27
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.83

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.