⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
CWS
@ 9:40p
AZ
Chase Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.83×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof
Combined
0.835
Temp
64.8°F
Wind
3.0 mph
cross
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Everson Pereira Everson Pereira 76 🟡 B · ❄ COLD 16 0.325 93.6 27.3% 33.3% 410 50.0% 33.3% 22.6% 16
2 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 71 🟡 B · 🔥 HOT 27 0.287 85.4 10.3% 37.5% 379 42.9% 33.3% 25.0% 24
3 Munetaka Murakami Munetaka Murakami 70 🟡 B · · 28 0.350 92.8 21.2% 47.4% 399 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 0
4 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 57 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 64 0.215 86.4 9.8% 18.2% 402 25.0% 28.6% 12.8% 34
5 Andrew Benintendi Andrew Benintendi 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 97 0.149 89.8 10.0% 7.1% · 14.3% 16.7% 6.3% 21
6 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 25 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 208 0.101 87.6 4.4% 7.1% 417 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 31
7 Luisangel Acuña Luisangel Acuña 17 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 242 0.016 87.8 2.2% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 24
8 Edgar Quero Edgar Quero 8 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 259 0.019 89.8 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 21
9 Tristan Peters Tristan Peters 7 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 260 0.021 83.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 12
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 69 🔵 C+ · · 33 0.287 91.9 12.2% 21.4% 407 25.0% 25.0% 13.8% 22
2 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 57 0.240 84.9 7.7% 11.1% · 12.5% 12.5% 11.9% 23
3 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 77 0.262 86.4 8.6% 37.5% 405 12.5% 12.5% 15.0% 34
4 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 99 0.161 92.4 9.6% 26.7% 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 31
5 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 106 0.144 83.8 4.5% 17.6% 399 11.1% 20.0% 13.2% 30
6 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 41 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 123 0.125 86.0 9.4% 28.6% 409 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 27
7 Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno 35 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 165 0.125 87.4 9.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 5
8 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 191 0.109 86.7 1.8% 7.1% 398 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 28
9 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 195 0.153 92.2 5.7% 7.7% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 24
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.83

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.