⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
CHC
@ 4:10p
SD
Petco Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cool air · light partial wind out · roof open
Combined
0.818
Temp
55.6°F
Wind
3.4 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 66 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 41 0.230 89.7 15.9% 33.3% 397 27.6% 23.1% 27.2% 34
2 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 66 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 42 0.225 90.6 14.1% 17.6% 393 20.7% 23.1% 26.7% 36
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 66 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 43 0.239 89.2 8.1% 40.0% 407 14.3% 33.3% 34.6% 35
4 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 51 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 98 0.162 85.9 3.1% 7.7% 383 13.8% 23.1% 10.6% 53
5 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 43 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 136 0.133 92.1 13.5% 0.0% 414 7.4% 8.3% 7.0% 23
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 145 0.116 90.0 7.7% 23.8% 395 7.4% 7.7% 10.1% 41
7 Michael Busch Michael Busch 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 147 0.091 84.1 6.8% 11.1% 398 6.9% 15.4% 7.3% 37
8 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 151 0.098 90.6 5.8% 6.7% 389 7.1% 8.3% 6.1% 29
9 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 153 0.160 88.1 8.2% 16.7% 361 12.5% 0.0% 10.9% 20
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 60 🔵 C+ · · 60 0.244 88.8 10.5% 35.7% 410 8.7% 10.0% 27.5% 30
2 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 75 0.162 90.2 7.5% 25.0% 385 16.7% 27.3% 23.8% 32
3 Ramón Laureano Ramón Laureano 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 87 0.188 89.6 15.4% 23.8% 396 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 28
4 Manny Machado Manny Machado 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 122 0.168 87.4 4.8% 28.6% 384 12.5% 9.1% 17.3% 34
5 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 42 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 146 0.134 88.6 12.7% 13.0% 399 12.5% 0.0% 8.9% 29
6 Fernando Tatis Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. 35 ⚪ D · · 182 0.036 93.7 13.2% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 30
7 Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 192 0.058 88.8 5.1% 9.1% 399 4.2% 0.0% 8.3% 24
8 Miguel Andujar Miguel Andujar 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 236 0.125 90.1 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 22
9 Freddy Fermin Freddy Fermin 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 245 0.064 88.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 12
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.