⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
CHC
@ 9:40p
SD
Petco Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.89×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cool air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.798
Temp
56.4°F
Wind
4.6 mph
out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 66 🔵 C+ · · 16 0.245 89.7 15.9% 35.7% 397 29.6% 23.1% 26.7% 34
2 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 59 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 27 0.224 90.6 14.1% 17.6% 393 22.2% 30.8% 23.7% 36
3 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 50 🟠 C · · 46 0.220 89.2 8.1% 33.3% 407 10.5% 28.6% 26.5% 35
4 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 44 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 59 0.167 85.9 3.1% 8.7% 383 14.8% 23.1% 10.4% 51
5 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 75 0.143 92.1 13.5% 0.0% 414 8.0% 16.7% 10.8% 25
6 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 38 ⚪ D · · 82 0.174 88.1 8.2% 16.7% 361 13.6% 0.0% 10.5% 18
7 Michael Busch Michael Busch 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 94 0.097 84.1 6.8% 11.8% 398 7.4% 15.4% 6.5% 38
8 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 32 ⚪ D · · 104 0.122 90.0 7.7% 27.8% 395 8.0% 9.1% 9.4% 43
9 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 18 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 133 0.076 90.6 5.8% 6.7% 389 3.8% 0.0% 5.6% 31
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ramón Laureano Ramón Laureano 48 ⚪ D · · 49 0.204 89.6 15.4% 0.0% 396 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 26
2 Gavin Sheets Gavin Sheets 44 ⚪ D · · 58 0.217 88.8 10.5% 25.0% 410 4.8% 0.0% 13.0% 29
3 Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 80 0.145 88.6 12.7% 15.0% 399 13.6% 0.0% 7.9% 28
4 Xander Bogaerts Xander Bogaerts 38 ⚪ D · · 83 0.145 90.2 7.5% 0.0% 385 13.6% 20.0% 8.2% 30
5 Manny Machado Manny Machado 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 86 0.154 87.4 4.8% 28.6% 384 13.6% 10.0% 12.7% 34
6 Fernando Tatis Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. 25 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 118 0.040 93.7 13.2% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 27
7 Miguel Andujar Miguel Andujar 18 ⚪ D · · 134 0.132 90.1 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 19
8 Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 137 0.059 88.8 5.1% 10.0% 399 4.5% 0.0% 6.7% 24
9 Freddy Fermin Freddy Fermin 11 ⚪ D · · 141 0.070 88.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 9
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.