CHC
@
7:15p
ATL
Park Factor
1.03×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
cool air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.137
Temp
64.8°F
Wind
13.8 mph
cross
Roof
open
Colin Rea
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Olson | 64 | 🔵 C+ | +425 | 🌤️ WARM | 1 | 0.330 | 93.5 | · | 46.2% | 413 | 31.6% | 45.5% | 37.6% | 32 |
| 2 |
|
Ozzie Albies | 53 | 🟠 C | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 19 | 0.216 | 86.4 | · | 18.5% | 386 | 18.4% | 27.3% | 21.4% | 40 |
| 3 |
|
Drake Baldwin | 45 | ⚪ D | +625 | · | 42 | 0.197 | 92.0 | · | 28.6% | 400 | 23.7% | 18.2% | 24.4% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Dominic Smith | 42 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 51 | 0.219 | 90.2 | · | 16.7% | 398 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 11 |
| 5 | Michael Harris II | 41 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 61 | 0.220 | 95.1 | · | 31.6% | 390 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 16.2% | 27 | |
| 6 |
|
Austin Riley | 34 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 104 | 0.128 | 91.1 | · | 14.8% | 404 | 7.9% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 25 |
| 7 |
|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 28 | ⚪ D | · | · | 155 | 0.130 | 89.2 | · | 11.8% | 411 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 12 |
| 8 |
|
Mauricio Dubón | 24 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 184 | 0.151 | 87.3 | · | 9.5% | 393 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 38 |
| 9 |
|
Mike Yastrzemski | 16 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 227 | 0.068 | 89.7 | · | 10.5% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 24 |
Grant Holmes
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Ian Happ | 55 | 🟠 C | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 14 | 0.230 | 89.4 | · | 33.3% | 397 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 34.9% | 23 |
| 2 |
|
Moisés Ballesteros | 49 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 25 | 0.282 | 90.4 | · | 28.6% | 390 | 10.5% | 11.1% | 20.0% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Dansby Swanson | 41 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 58 | 0.225 | 90.7 | · | 11.5% | 393 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 39 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 71 | 0.121 | 91.8 | · | 12.0% | 383 | 10.3% | 25.0% | 14.6% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Matt Shaw | 36 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 84 | 0.206 | 86.9 | · | 22.2% | 357 | 11.4% | 8.3% | 17.8% | 17 |
| 6 |
|
Nico Hoerner | 31 | ⚪ D | +1000 | 🌧️ COOL | 128 | 0.158 | 86.1 | · | 6.9% | 383 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 44 |
| 7 |
|
Michael Busch | 30 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 140 | 0.088 | 87.9 | · | 9.4% | 408 | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 30 |
| 8 |
|
Carson Kelly | 27 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 159 | 0.133 | 90.8 | · | 0.0% | 414 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 24 |
| 9 |
|
Alex Bregman | 22 | ⚪ D | +750 | ❄ COLD | 200 | 0.113 | 89.2 | · | 21.7% | 395 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 30 |