⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
BAL
@ 6:40p
MIA
loanDepot Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.95×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.949
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 57 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 10 0.261 88.5 · 40.0% 378 25.0% 33.3% 32.9% 28
2 Connor Norby Connor Norby 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 139 0.150 88.2 · 18.8% 390 9.1% 9.1% 10.8% 18
3 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 167 0.170 91.5 · 16.7% 396 8.8% 8.3% 10.6% 41
4 Agustín Ramírez Agustín Ramírez 26 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 186 0.125 89.2 · 12.5% 415 5.3% 0.0% 7.6% 23
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 222 0.115 88.4 · 9.1% 385 2.9% 8.3% 7.0% 40
6 Graham Pauley Graham Pauley 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 229 0.134 83.3 · 5.3% 362 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 19
7 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 239 0.138 90.7 · 15.4% 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 17
8 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 248 0.085 87.8 · 5.6% 351 5.0% 0.0% 6.5% 27
9 Heriberto Hernández 5 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 268 0.031 89.0 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 10
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 52 🟠 C · · 24 0.279 89.9 · 22.2% 388 24.2% 15.4% 20.7% 31
2 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 46 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 46 0.166 89.2 · 9.1% 429 9.7% 16.7% 17.3% 22
3 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 54 0.162 95.2 · 23.8% 395 14.3% 30.8% 21.3% 34
4 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 45 ⚪ D · · 55 0.221 92.3 · 26.7% 410 15.0% 16.7% 22.6% 26
5 Jeremiah Jackson Jeremiah Jackson 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 100 0.185 88.1 · 30.0% 396 17.4% 15.4% 14.9% 30
6 Dylan Beavers Dylan Beavers 34 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 120 0.125 88.2 · 15.4% 406 5.0% 7.7% 7.6% 26
7 Leody Taveras Leody Taveras 27 ⚪ D · · 175 0.143 87.8 · 17.6% 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 25
8 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 21 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 215 0.142 89.0 · 0.0% 394 2.8% 0.0% 6.5% 26
9 Blaze Alexander Blaze Alexander 11 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 262 0.018 92.2 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 20
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.