⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
AZ
@ 3:10p
COL
Coors Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.17×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
warm air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.170
Temp
75.3°F
Wind
11.5 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Mickey Moniak Mickey Moniak 85 🟢 A · · 6 0.369 90.2 15.3% 40.0% 417 21.1% 16.7% 40.1% 28
2 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 76 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 20 0.253 92.3 14.7% 37.5% 400 21.6% 18.2% 31.4% 29
3 Jake McCarthy Jake McCarthy 67 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 31 0.212 83.8 5.6% 15.4% 425 12.5% 50.0% 24.1% 21
4 TJ Rumfield 56 🟠 C · · 58 0.172 86.2 8.3% 19.4% 413 9.7% 25.0% 21.3% 33
5 Brenton Doyle Brenton Doyle 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 150 0.058 87.6 4.5% 0.0% 408 2.8% 0.0% 6.7% 13
6 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 36 ⚪ D · · 155 0.075 87.6 7.6% 3.6% 401 2.6% 0.0% 6.5% 24
7 Willi Castro Willi Castro 32 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 178 0.094 88.7 6.4% 0.0% 406 3.6% 8.3% 5.9% 26
8 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 201 0.076 89.3 5.7% 7.7% 448 3.3% 0.0% 7.7% 19
9 Sterlin Thompson Sterlin Thompson 17 ⚪ D · · 243 · · · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ryan Waldschmidt Ryan Waldschmidt 76 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 18 0.295 82.8 12.5% 20.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 33.2% 22
2 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 70 🟡 B · · 26 0.238 90.4 11.2% 21.1% 408 12.5% 8.3% 24.2% 38
3 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 59 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 51 0.178 84.5 7.4% 20.8% 401 13.2% 8.3% 15.2% 27
4 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 57 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 57 0.230 87.5 4.7% 20.0% 399 14.3% 8.3% 22.8% 45
5 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 78 0.152 91.3 9.1% 22.7% 411 3.7% 0.0% 15.6% 38
6 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 41 ⚪ D · · 126 0.135 86.7 3.4% 5.9% 382 3.6% 0.0% 10.2% 36
7 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 144 0.045 87.1 6.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 28
8 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 163 0.111 88.9 4.7% 37.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 17
9 James McCann James McCann 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 164 0.055 90.2 5.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 8
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.79

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.