⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
AZ
@ 2:20p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.07×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cold air · strong crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.964
Temp
52.3°F
Wind
16.1 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ildemaro Vargas Ildemaro Vargas 55 🟠 C · · 9 0.326 88.0 · 50.0% 395 17.6% 18.2% 40.6% 42
2 Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll 44 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 40 0.274 89.9 · 16.7% 408 15.4% 9.1% 15.5% 24
3 Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 54 0.179 83.5 · 26.3% 400 14.8% 18.2% 21.4% 28
4 Jorge Barrosa Jorge Barrosa 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 59 0.204 86.2 · 16.7% 351 6.2% 10.0% 19.7% 15
5 Adrian Del Castillo Adrian Del Castillo 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 70 0.167 87.5 · 16.7% 399 14.3% 14.3% 11.1% 19
6 Ketel Marte Ketel Marte 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 81 0.159 92.6 · 26.3% 411 6.2% 9.1% 13.2% 34
7 Alek Thomas Alek Thomas 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 116 0.171 89.4 · 11.1% 408 5.9% 9.1% 16.7% 24
8 Jose Fernandez Jose Fernandez 27 ⚪ D · · 140 0.145 89.5 · 37.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 27
9 Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 154 0.140 86.5 · 14.3% 382 5.9% 9.1% 9.8% 22
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 26 0.225 90.3 · 16.7% 393 18.8% 15.4% 18.2% 33
2 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 48 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 29 0.282 90.9 · 26.3% 390 8.3% 0.0% 32.0% 32
3 Ian Happ Ian Happ 48 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 30 0.230 89.2 · 31.6% 397 28.1% 15.4% 32.2% 33
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 53 0.121 91.4 · 11.1% 385 9.7% 16.7% 14.9% 30
5 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 62 0.206 86.8 · 25.0% 357 14.8% 9.1% 14.6% 22
6 Michael Busch Michael Busch 37 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 75 0.088 86.2 · 9.1% 398 6.2% 15.4% 11.8% 36
7 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 80 0.113 90.2 · 21.7% 395 6.7% 7.7% 9.3% 41
8 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 36 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 82 0.158 86.4 · 7.4% 383 12.5% 7.7% 8.5% 44
9 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 136 0.133 91.3 · 0.0% 414 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 22
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.